Publication - Research and analysis

Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no.102)

Published: 23 June 2022
From: Director-General Health and Social Care
Directorate: Constitution Directorate
Topic: Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Scotland, Health and social care
ISBN: 9781804356616

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.

Supporting documents

Footnotes

1 The UK POLYMOD figures from https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/track/pdf/10.1186/s12916-020-01597-8

2 From the 31^st March 2022, panels A and B were merged into one survey and are run fortnightly. These data points are reported as at the first day of the survey round. Further details of this are presented in the Technical Annex of issue 99.

3 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/17june2022

4 For this graph, a wastewater Covid-19 average using the last 7 days of data is computed at every sampling date. Prevalence estimates and 95% confidence intervals from the ONS Coronavirus Infection Survey are overlaid, with a scale chosen to approximately match Jan/Feb trends in WW Covid-19.

5 Coverage as for week ending 17th June 2022.

[1] Coronavirus (Covid-19): trends in daily data - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

[3] Covid-19 vaccine weekly surveillance reports (weeks 39 to 7, 2021 to 2022) - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

[4] Coronavirus (Covid-19): trends in daily data - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

[5] Coronavirus (Covid-19): trends in daily data - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)