Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no.105)

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.


Technical Annex

What levels of Covid-19 are indicated by wastewater data?

Table 1 provides population weighted daily averages for normalised wastewater Covid-19 levels in the weeks ending 21st and 28th July 2022, with no estimate for error. This is given in Million gene copies per person per day. Coverage is given as percentage of inhabitants in each local authority covered by a wastewater Covid‑19 sampling site delivering data during this period.

Table 1. Average Covid-19 wastewater levels (Mgc/p/d) [6]
Local Authority (LA) w/e 21st July w/e 28th July Coverage
Aberdeen City 72 92 99 %
Aberdeenshire 53 40 48 %
Angus 67 69 68 %
Argyll and Bute 72 164 13 %
City of Edinburgh 85 73 98 %
Clackmannanshire 41 38 70 %
Dumfries and Galloway 32 90 39 %
Dundee City 84 86 100 %
East Ayrshire 112 50 72 %
East Dunbartonshire 87 59 99 %
East Lothian 73 70 65 %
East Renfrewshire 81 84 95 %
Falkirk 98 69 96 %
Fife 58 70 77 %
Glasgow City 83 68 98 %
Highland 120 35 48 %
Inverclyde 46 70 98 %
Midlothian 86 98 88 %
Moray 47 101 70 %
Na h-Eileanan Siar 41 133 21 %
North Ayrshire 74 76 92 %
North Lanarkshire 99 51 95 %
Orkney Islands 20 0 %
Perth and Kinross 66 38 45 %
Renfrewshire 79 58 97 %
Scottish Borders 49 92 48 %
Shetland Islands 0 %
South Ayrshire 110 52 88 %
South Lanarkshire 81 51 90 %
Stirling 24 14 63 %
West Dunbartonshire 70 36 98 %
West Lothian 87 185 95 %

Contact

Email: sgcentralanalysisdivision@gov.scot

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