Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no. 29)

Key Points

• The reproduction rate R in Scotland is currently estimated as being between 0.8 and 1.0.
• The number of new daily infections for Scotland is estimated as being between 44 and 82, per 100,000 people.
• The growth rate for Scotland is estimated as being between - 3% and - 1%.
• Average contacts per day are approximately 60% higher than the level at the beginning of the stay-at-home advice, and less than half of the level pre-stay-at-home advice.
• The number of contacts has fallen in the last two weeks (down around 12%). This suggests the Protection Level restrictions are having an effect that may feed through to confirmed cases over the next week.
• Older people generally have fewer reported contacts than younger people, but the difference is largely from work and school contacts, rather than in the home or in other settings. All age groups below 60 report fewer contacts in the home during the last two weeks.
• Modelled rates per 100K indicate that by the week of 13 – 19 December, 16 (down 5 from last week) local authorities have at least a 75% probability of exceeding 50 cases, 4 (down 3) of those have at least a 75% probability of exceeding 100 cases and none of those have at least a 75% probability of exceeding 300 (or 500) cases. This is an improvement compared to last week.