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Publication - Research and analysis

Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no. 29)

Published
3 December 2020
From
Director-General Health and Social Care
Directorate
Constitution Directorate
Topic
Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Scotland
ISBN
9781800044029

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.

View supporting documents Supporting documents

What the modelling tells us about Hospital bed and ICU bed demand

Figure 6 shows the impact of the Lower and Higher scenarios on the number of people in hospital.

Figure 6. Short term forecast of modelled hospital bed demand, from Scottish Government modelling.
A line graph showing the two week ahead lower and higher scenario predictions of hospital bed demand. The higher scenario indicates up to around 1,500 beds, whereas the lower scenario indicates around 1,000 hospital beds required in two weeks.

Figure 7 shows the impact of the Lower and Higher scenarios on ICU bed demand.

Figure 7. Short term forecast of modelled ICU bed demand, from Scottish Government modelling.
A line graph showing a short term forecast of modelled ICU bed demand, from Scottish Government modelling. The higher scenario indicates up to around 125 ICU required, whereas the lower scenario indicates up to 100 ICU required in two weeks.

Contact

Email: modellingcoronavirus@gov.scot

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