Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no. 34)

Footnotes

1. Based on S gene dropout, which is a proxy for the new variant.

2. https://beta.isdscotland.org/find-publications-and-data/population-health/covid-19/covid-19-statistical-report/

3. Actual data does not include full numbers of CPAP or people staying longer than 28 days.

4. A two week projection is provided here.

5. Based at Edinburgh University, Strathclyde University Aberdeen University and Public Health Scotland.

6. Based on S gene dropout, which is a proxy for the new variant.

7. The analysis of the S gene drop out data uses Lighthouse samples only and the true drop out corresponds to negative on the S gene and Ct values < 30 for at least one of the OR and N genes. A weak positive is negative for S and Ct >= 30 for both OR and N genes; all other Lighthouse samples are labelled S gene positive. Unknown corresponds to individuals who are tested in the NHS labs attached to the hospitals and S Gene dropout status cannot be determined from these samples. The bar charts show the percentage of individuals within each S gene group who have the characteristic. For example the percentage of S gene positive who are in the lowest deprivation group, the percentage of true S gene dropout who are in the lowest deprivation group and the percentage of weak S gene positive who are in the lowest deprivation group. Differences in these percentages indicate subgroups where S gene deletion may be more (or less) common.

8. Based on S gene dropout, which is a proxy for the new variant.

9. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.24.20236661v1

10. 10.5281/zenodo.4246047

11. Cycle Threshold