Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no. 40)
Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement
Technical Annex
Two new panels have been created from the recent Scottish Contact Survey recruitment and have run alongside current panels A & B since 21 January 2021. The new panels have been combined with the established panels to maintain numbers and demographic representation.
Panel A and B have been running continuously for 6 months and experienced a drop off of participants since commencement, particularly in the working age groups as seen in Figure 19. The difference in overall mean contacts between the established panel and the new combined panels is likely due to the nature of the remaining participants in the established panels. Those remaining are more likely to be individuals with fewer commitments and social interactions. The new panels have not experienced the drop off of the established panels so may still contain this type of individual.
Figure 20 shows the mean overall contacts for the established panels (A and B) compared against the combined panels (A2 and B2). The combined panels show higher overall contacts, by at least 17%, which is likely due to the new respondents maintaining participation amongst individuals with high contacts, whilst the original panels, A and B, have seen a significant drop off in contacts over time, likely losing these individuals.
Breaking down the contacts into settings, differences in results are seen largely for contacts at work. Employment levels across panels are consistent and therefore not the driver for this difference. This supports the notion that the remaining participants in the established panels (A and B) have fewer commitments.
Table 2 displays the percentage of those vaccinated by age group from the most recent survey.
| Vaccinated | Age Group | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18-49 | 50-59 | 60-69 | 70+ | |
| Yes | 13% | 15% | 25% | 83% |
| No | 87% | 85% | 75% | 17% |
| LA | P (Cases > 500) | P (Cases > 300) | P (Cases > 100) | P (Cases > 50) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen City | 0-5% | 0-5% | 5-15% | 5-15% |
| Aberdeenshire | 0-5% | 0-5% | 5-15% | 15-25% |
| Angus | 0-5% | 0-5% | 5-15% | 25-50% |
| Argyll and Bute | 0-5% | 0-5% | 0-5% | 25-50% |
| City of Edinburgh | 5-15% | 25-50% | 50-75% | 75-100% |
| Clackmannanshire | 0-5% | 0-5% | 50-75% | 75-100% |
| Dumfries and Galloway | 0-5% | 0-5% | 5-15% | 25-50% |
| Dundee City | 0-5% | 0-5% | 5-15% | 25-50% |
| East Ayrshire | 0-5% | 5-15% | 75-100% | 75-100% |
| East Dunbartonshire | 0-5% | 0-5% | 15-25% | 50-75% |
| East Lothian | 0-5% | 0-5% | 15-25% | 50-75% |
| East Renfrewshire | 0-5% | 0-5% | 25-50% | 75-100% |
| Falkirk | 0-5% | 15-25% | 75-100% | 75-100% |
| Fife | 0-5% | 5-15% | 25-50% | 75-100% |
| Glasgow City | 15-25% | 25-50% | 75-100% | 75-100% |
| Highland | 0-5% | 0-5% | 5-15% | 25-50% |
| Inverclyde | 0-5% | 0-5% | 0-5% | 25-50% |
| Midlothian | 0-5% | 0-5% | 25-50% | 50-75% |
| Moray | 0-5% | 0-5% | 5-15% | 50-75% |
| Na h-Eileanan Siar | 0-5% | 0-5% | 15-25% | 25-50% |
| North Ayrshire | 0-5% | 0-5% | 25-50% | 75-100% |
| North Lanarkshire | 5-15% | 25-50% | 75-100% | 75-100% |
| Orkney Islands | 0-5% | 0-5% | 0-5% | 0-5% |
| Perth and Kinross | 0-5% | 0-5% | 15-25% | 50-75% |
| Renfrewshire | 0-5% | 5-15% | 75-100% | 75-100% |
| Scottish Borders | 0-5% | 0-5% | 5-15% | 25-50% |
| Shetland Islands | 0-5% | 0-5% | 0-5% | 0-5% |
| South Ayrshire | 0-5% | 0-5% | 15-25% | 50-75% |
| South Lanarkshire | 5-15% | 15-25% | 50-75% | 75-100% |
| Stirling | 0-5% | 0-5% | 50-75% | 75-100% |
| West Dunbartonshire | 0-5% | 5-15% | 75-100% | 75-100% |
| West Lothian | 0-5% | 15-25% | 75-100% | 75-100% |
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