Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no. 40)

Footnotes

1. Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

2. Better assumes a vaccine effect based on current roll-out plans. Worse is without this vaccine effect. The real-world effectiveness of vaccines, particularly against infection, is not yet known.

3. The actual positive tests are adjusted to coincide with the estimated day of infection.

4. Hospital bed actuals only include hospital stays up to 28 days duration linked to Covid-19.

5. Actual data does not include full numbers of CPAP. ICU bed actuals include all ICU patients being treated for Covid-19 including those over 28 days.

6. A four week projection is provided here.

7. Optimising the COVID-19 vaccination programme for maximum short-term impact - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

8. Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no. 35) - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

9. Case data represents positive Pillar 1 and 2 tests, as published by the NRS. They do not represent all infections. ICU bed actuals include all ICU patients being treated for Covid-19, including those over 28 days. Hospital bed actuals only include hospital beds up to 28 days. Deaths include all deaths linked to Covid-19 reported by the NRS as a cause on the death certificate.

10. There is a very small difference without the new respondents of about 0.1.