Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no. 43)

Footnotes

1 It is import to highlight that the numbers within sub groups are relatively small diminishing the power of the comparison (Technical Annex table 1).

2 COVID-19 Daily Dashboard - PHS COVID-19 | Tableau Public

3 Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

4 Both scenarios are based on current vaccine roll-out plans and efficacy assumptions. The difference between the two projections reflects uncertainty about behaviour and compliance as interventions are relaxed.

5 The actual positive tests are adjusted to coincide with the estimated day of infection.

6 Hospital bed actuals only include hospital stays up to 28 days duration linked to Covid-19.

7 Actual data does not include full numbers of CPAP. ICU bed actuals include all ICU patients being treated for Covid-19 including those over 28 days.

8 A three week projection is provided here.

9 https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/963359/S1072_SPI-M-O_Statement_on_relaxation_of_NPI_scenarios__schools_.pdf

10 Optimising the COVID-19 vaccination programme for maximum short-term impact - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

11 PHS defines a confirmed COVID-19 death as an individual who dies within 28 days of their first positive COVID-19 laboratory report.