Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no. 44)

Footnotes

1 Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

2 Two week projections are included here, extending to the Easter weekend.

3 Both scenarios are based on current vaccine roll-out plans and efficacy assumptions. The difference between the two projections reflects uncertainty about behaviour and compliance as interventions are relaxed.

4 The actual positive tests are adjusted to coincide with the estimated day of infection.

5 Hospital bed actuals only include hospital stays up to 28 days duration linked to Covid-19.

6 Actual data does not include full numbers of CPAP. ICU bed actuals include all ICU patients being treated for Covid-19 including those over 28 days.

7 A two week projection is provided here.

8 https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/963359/S1072_SPI-M-O_Statement_on_relaxation_of_NPI_scenarios__schools_.pdf

9 Optimising the COVID-19 vaccination programme for maximum short-term impact - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

10 PHS defines a confirmed COVID-19 death as an individual who dies within 28 days of their first positive COVID-19 laboratory report.

11 Based at Edinburgh University, Strathclyde University Aberdeen University and Public Health Scotland.