Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no. 53)

Footnotes

1 Particular care should be taken when interpreting this estimate as it is based on low numbers of cases, hospitalisations, or deaths and / or dominated by clustered outbreaks. They should not be treated as robust enough to inform policy decisions alone.

2 Deaths, Cases and Hospitalisations from PHS COVID-19 daily cases in Scotland dashboard.

3 Vaccination and contact data for the 0-17 age cohort is not presented due to the vast majority of this age group not being offered vaccinations and the SCS excluding contacts between children.

4 Both scenarios are based on current vaccine roll-out plans and efficacy assumptions.

5 Four week projections are included here.

6 Both scenarios are based on current vaccine roll-out plans and efficacy assumptions.

7 The actual positive tests are adjusted to coincide with the estimated day of infection.

8 Actual data does not include full numbers of CPAP. ICU bed actuals include all ICU patients being treated for Covid-19 including those over 28 days.

9 Four week projections are provided here: Scientific evidence supporting the government response to coronavirus (COVID-19) - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

10 https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/963359/S1072_SPI-M-O_Statement_on_relaxation_of_NPI_scenarios__schools_.pdf

11 An anomalously high value in Seafield (Edinburgh) in mid-February is removed. See Issue 40 for details.

12 The blue line and points give a population weighted weekly average in the Local Authority area, with the shape of each point denoting the percentage of the LA population covered by WW sampling that week.