Publication - Research and analysis
Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no.83)
Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.
Technical Annex
Which local authorities are likely to experience high levels of Covid-19 in two weeks' time
| Probability of exceeding (cases per 100K) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Local Authority (LA) | 50 | 100 | 300 | 500 |
| Aberdeen City | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% | 50-75% |
| Aberdeenshire | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% |
| Angus | 75-100% | 75-100% | 50-75% | 25-50% |
| Argyll and Bute | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% |
| City of Edinburgh | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% |
| Clackmannanshire | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% |
| Dumfries & Galloway | 75-100% | 75-100% | 50-75% | 15-25% |
| Dundee City | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% |
| East Ayrshire | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% |
| East Dunbartonshire | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% |
| East Lothian | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% |
| East Renfrewshire | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% |
| Falkirk | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% |
| Fife | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% |
| Glasgow City | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% |
| Highland | 75-100% | 75-100% | 25-50% | 15-25% |
| Inverclyde | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% | 50-75% |
| Midlothian | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% |
| Moray | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% |
| Na h-Eileanan Siar | 25-50% | 15-25% | 0-5% | 0-5% |
| North Ayrshire | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% |
| North Lanarkshire | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% |
| Orkney Islands | 25-50% | 15-25% | 0-5% | 0-5% |
| Perth and Kinross | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% |
| Renfrewshire | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% |
| Scottish Borders | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% | 50-75% |
| Shetland Islands | 25-50% | 15-25% | 0-5% | 0-5% |
| South Ayrshire | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% |
| South Lanarkshire | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% |
| Stirling | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% |
| West Dunbartonshire | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% |
| West Lothian | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% | 75-100% |
What levels of Covid-19 are indicated by wastewater data?
Table 2 provides population weighted daily averages for normalised WW Covid-19 levels in the weeks ending 13th and 20th December 2021, with no estimate for error. This is given in Million gene copies per person, which approximately corresponds to new cases per 100,000 per day. Coverage is given as percentage of LA inhabitants covered by a wastewater Covid‑19 sampling site delivering data during this period[12].
| Local authority (LA) | w/e 13th December | w/e 20th December | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen City | 37 | 87 | 99% |
| Aberdeenshire | 30 | 59 | 50% |
| Angus | 42 | 92 | 68% |
| Argyll and Bute | 30 | 96 | 13% |
| City of Edinburgh | 45 | 182 | 98% |
| Clackmannanshire | 69 | 51 | 92% |
| Dumfries & Galloway | 32 | 106 | 36% |
| Dundee City | 46 | 123 | 100% |
| East Ayrshire | 59 | 75 | 72% |
| East Dunbartonshire | 107 | 164 | 99% |
| East Lothian | 46 | 182 | 56% |
| East Renfrewshire | 50 | 121 | 89% |
| Falkirk | 86 | 169 | 96% |
| Fife | 55 | 127 | 79% |
| Glasgow City | 78 | 142 | 71% |
| Highland | 24 | 59 | 48% |
| Inverclyde | 58 | 122 | 98% |
| Midlothian | 45 | 170 | 88% |
| Moray | 25 | 79 | 28% |
| Na h-Eileanan Siar | – | – | 0% |
| North Ayrshire | 40 | 80 | 93% |
| North Lanarkshire | 86 | 147 | 44% |
| Orkney Islands | 8 | 3 | 34% |
| Perth and Kinross | 23 | 47 | 45% |
| Renfrewshire | 61 | 155 | 97% |
| Scottish Borders | 28 | 113 | 41% |
| Shetland Islands | 5 | 5 | 29% |
| South Ayrshire | 52 | 90 | 88% |
| South Lanarkshire | 78 | 163 | 68% |
| Stirling | 12 | 85 | 63% |
| West Dunbartonshire | 58 | 86 | 98% |
| West Lothian | 47 | 149 | 89% |
Contact
There is a problem
Thanks for your feedback