Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no.86)

Footnotes

1 Using data to 17th January.

2 The cyan bars use Covid-19 test data and purple bars use multiple sources of data. The estimate produced by the Scottish Government is on the left (yellow). The UKHSA consensus range is the right‑most (red). Data to 17th January 2022. R, incidence and growth rate as of 4th January.

3 See Figure 6 https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1041593/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-50.pdf

4 All projections are based on current vaccine roll-out plans and efficacy assumptions. Data to 5th January 2022.

5 The actual positive tests are adjusted to coincide with the estimated day of infection.

6 Actual data does not include full numbers of CPAP. ICU bed actuals include all ICU patients being treated for Covid-19 including those over 28 days.