Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no.93)

Footnotes

1. On 1st March there is a jump in cases due to historical reinfections being added to the cumulative number of reported cases Coronavirus (Covid-19): trends in daily data - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

2. Using data to 5th March.

3. Particular care should be taken when interpreting this estimate as it is based on low numbers of cases, hospitalisations, or deaths and / or dominated by clustered outbreaks. It should not be treated as robust enough to inform policy decisions alone.

4. The cyan bars use Covid-19 test data and purple bars use multiple sources of data. The estimate produced by the Scottish Government is on the left in green. The UKHSA consensus range is the right‑most (red). Data to 5th March 2022. R and growth rate as of 22nd February 2022.

5. For this graph, a wastewater RNA average using the last 7 days of data is computed at every sampling date. Prevalence estimates and 95% confidence intervals from the ONS Coronavirus Infection Survey are overlaid, with a scale chosen to approximately match wastewater Covid-19 levels in 2022.

6. We have not been able to provide estimates for the Orkney or Shetland Islands this week.

7. Advancements in detection and interpretation practices allow us to identify when outlying results are anomalous rather than indicators of spikes in Covid-19 levels. Table 3 provides population weighted daily averages for normalised WW Covid-19 levels with the outliers removed. See Technical Annex in Issue 60 of these Research Findings for further details.

8. Coverage as for week ending 4th March 2022.