Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no.91)

Footnotes

1. Coronavirus (Covid-19): trends in daily data - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

2. Using data to 21st February.

3. Particular care should be taken when interpreting this estimate as it is based on low numbers of cases, hospitalisations, or deaths and / or dominated by clustered outbreaks. It should not be treated as robust enough to inform policy decisions alone.

4. The cyan bars use Covid-19 test data and purple bars use multiple sources of data. The estimates produced by the Scottish Government are the two on the left. (Yellow uses confirmed cases from PHS; green uses wastewater data). The UKHSA consensus range is the right‑most (red). Data to 21st February 2022. R, incidence and growth rate as of 8th February 2022.

5. Evidence paper to accompany: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Scotland's Strategic Framework Update – February 2022 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

6. Coronavirus (Covid-19): trends in daily data - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

7. Covid-19 vaccine weekly surveillance reports (weeks 39 to 7, 2021 to 2022) - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

8. Covid-19 vaccine weekly surveillance reports (weeks 39 to 7, 2021 to 2022) - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

9. Coronavirus (Covid-19): trends in daily data - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

10. Coronavirus (Covid-19): trends in daily data - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

11. Covid-19 vaccine weekly surveillance reports (weeks 39 to 7, 2021 to 2022) - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

12. For this graph, a wastewater RNA average using the last 7 days of data is computed at every sampling date. Prevalence estimates and 95% confidence intervals from the ONS Coronavirus Infection Survey are overlaid, with a scale chosen to approximately match cases and wastewater COVID-19 levels in 2021.

13. Covid-19 vaccine weekly surveillance reports (weeks 39 to 7, 2021 to 2022) - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

14. Advancements in detection and interpretation practices allow us to identify when outlying results are anomalous rather than indicators of spikes in Covid-19 levels. Table 3 provides population weighted daily averages for normalised WW Covid-19 levels with the outliers removed. See Technical Annex in Issue 60 of these Research Findings for further details.

15. Coverage as for week ending 21st February 2022.