Coronavirus (COVID-19): ONS Infection Survey – self-isolation data for Scotland – 14 February 2022

ONS Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey – Estimates of the workforce in self-isolation by sector - 14 February 2022

This article reports on estimates of the proportions of the UK workforce self-isolating due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) by work sector, between 5 December 2021 and 29 January 2022.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) have published reference tables with the underlying data displayed in the charts in this publication, alongside a bulletin about self-isolation estimates for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland, on the ONS website.

All results are provisional and are subject to revision.

Main Points

In Scotland, the trend in the percentage of the working-age population self-isolating due to COVID-19 showed some possible signs of an increase in the two weeks ending 29 January 2022 but with high uncertainty.

Recent trends in the estimated percentage of the working-age population self-isolating due to COVID-19 are similar for all UK countries; estimates increased throughout December, peaking between 1 and 3 January 2022 for all four nations. Following the peak, self-isolation rates declined across all countries in the first two weeks of January, before beginning to level out and show possible signs of another increase in the latest two week period.

In the UK, in the two weeks ending 29 January 2022, the percentage of people self-isolating due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) increased in three work sectors: teaching and education, social care and health care.

In the UK, the sectors with the highest percentage of the workforce in self-isolation on 29 January 2022 were social care, at 4.0% (95% confidence interval 2.9% to 5.4%), and teaching and education, at 3.9% (95% confidence interval 3.0% to 5.0%).

The retail sector had the lowest estimated percentage of the workforce in self-isolation, at 2.2% (95% confidence interval 1.6% to 2.9%).

Information on this release

This release uses data from the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey (CIS) to provide modelled estimates of the proportion of the workforce self-isolating due to COVID-19 by work sector.

Estimates are based on data collected between 5 December 2021 and 29 January 2022, during a period where infection rates were rising and new measures against the Omicron variant were introduced. During this period self-isolation requirements were frequently updated, with different changes taking place at different times across the countries of the UK. The latest information and guidance in England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland can be found on the gov.uk website.

“Self-isolation” refers to anybody who is not currently leaving their home due to COVID-19 on the date that their swab was taken. There are many possible reasons for self-isolation captured in CIS, and self-isolation does not mean that the participant was not working on the visit date. However, it should be noted that the ability to work from home varies by occupation, meaning the impact of self-isolation will be different in different work sectors. For more information see the “Which jobs can be done from home?” publication.

Due to its large sample size, the CIS can provide self-isolation estimates across a wide variety of sectors in the UK labour market. An ONS blog is available with further information about comparing the data collected in CIS with other self-isolation data sources.

In this article, “work sector” is self-reported and is not compatible with other definitions of sector such as Standard Industrial Classifications (SIC). More information on how work sector was defined and the methods used in our models can be found in the Measuring the data section.

Further information on measuring the data, quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in the bulletin on the ONS website.

Self-isolation by country

Due to smaller sample sizes for some work sectors within each nation, self-isolation estimates by country are provided for the working-age population in this section. These estimates include working-age adults (aged 17 to 69 years) regardless of employment status.

The estimated percentage of the working-age population self-isolating due to COVID-19 increased throughout December, peaking between 1 and 3 January 2022 in all UK countries. Following the peak, self-isolation rates declined across all countries in the first two weeks of January, before beginning to level out and show possible signs of another increase in the latest two week period (Figure 1).

In Scotland, the trend in the percentage of the working-age population self-isolating due to COVID-19 showed some possible signs of an increase in the two weeks ending 29 January 2022 but with high uncertainty. An estimated 2.2% (95% credible interval 1.9% to 2.6%) of the working-age population were in self-isolation on 15 January 2022, compared with 2.4% (95% credible interval 1.8% to 3.1%) on 29 January 2022.

Wales and Northern Ireland showed similar trends to Scotland, again with high uncertainty. In England, the percentage of the working-age population self-isolating due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) increased in the two weeks ending 29 January 2022.

Figure 1: Estimated percentage of the working-age population (aged 17 to 69 years) isolating due to coronavirus (COVID-19) from 12 December 2021 to 29 January 2022, UK countries (see notes 2,4,6)

Self-isolation by UK work sector

Due to smaller sample sizes for some work sectors within each nation, a single UK-wide set of estimates by sector is reported in this section. These estimates are based on individuals aged 16 and over, who reported being in employment.

In the two weeks ending 29 January 2022, there was an increase in the percentage of people self-isolating due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) in the following three work sectors: teaching and education, social care and health care. There were possible signs of an increase across all other work sectors, but these trends remain uncertain (Figure 2).

On 29 January 2022, the sectors with the highest percentage of the workforce in self-isolation were social care, at 4.0% (95% confidence interval 2.9% to 5.4%), and the teaching and education sector, at 3.9% (95% confidence interval 3.0% to 5.0%). The retail sector had the lowest estimated percentage of the workforce in self-isolation, at 2.2% (95% confidence interval 1.6% to 2.9%).

Figure 2: Estimated percentage of the workforce self-isolating because of the coronavirus (COVID-19), by work sector from 5 December 2021 to 29 January 2022, United Kingdom (see notes 3,5)

The percentage of the workforce in self-isolation on 29 January 2022 has shown signs of reaching similar levels to the early January peak in some work sectors. These sectors, which reached estimates within one percentage point of their early January peak, were social care, health care, and food production, agriculture and farming. 

During the peak in early January, the social care sector had the highest rate of self-isolation, with an estimated 4.5% (95% confidence interval 3.7% to 5.5%) in self-isolation.

Methodology and further information

1. All results are provisional and subject to revision.
2. When analysing the percentage of the working-age population who were self-isolating by country, working-age adults are defined as those aged 17 to 69 years. These statistics refer to self-reported self-isolation occurring in working-age adults (aged 17 to 69 years), regardless of employment status, living in private households.
3. When analysing the percentage of the working-age population who were self-isolating by work sector, statistics refer to self-reported self-isolation reported in all working individuals aged 16 and over (either employed or self-employed), living in private households.
4. During the period shown, self-isolation requirements were frequently updated with different changes taking place at different times across the countries of the UK. The latest information and guidance in England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland can be found on the gov.uk website.
5. A confidence interval gives an indication of the degree of uncertainty of an estimate, showing the precision of a sample estimate. The 95% confidence intervals are calculated so that if we repeated the study many times, 95% of the time the true unknown value would lie between the lower and upper confidence limits. A wider interval indicates more uncertainty in the estimate. Overlapping confidence intervals indicate that there may not be a true difference between two estimates. For more information, see our methodology page on statistical uncertainty.
6. A credible interval gives an indication of the uncertainty of an estimate from data analysis. The 95% credible intervals are calculated so that there is a 95% probability of the true value lying in the interval.
7. Rates of self-isolation by country were estimated using a Generalised Additive Mixed Model (GAMM) in adults aged 17 to 69 years regardless of whether or not they reported being in work. Similarly, this model provides an estimate of the rate of self-isolation in the UK and by country and provides a 95% credible interval (to show uncertainty of estimates in the model).
8. Work sector refers to the broad work area, for example, manufacturing and construction. Sector has greater variability than might be initially expected, with different types of occupation within the same sector, and occupations will be included in several sectors. For example, every sector is likely to include accountants, maintenance, catering roles and others. We will continue to undertake analysis on this.
9. Rates of self-isolation by work sector were estimated using a Generalised Additive Model (GAM) in adults aged 16 years and older who reported being in work and a work sector. This model provides an estimate of the rate of self-isolation and provides a 95% confidence interval (to show uncertainty of estimates in the model).
10. Rates of self-isolation by work sector and by country were produced using estimated marginal means. This technique estimates how much the rate of self-isolation is affected by differences in factors like work sector or country.
11. Work sector is self-reported, where working adults aged 16 and over are asked to select the employment sector they work in, from the following sectors: Arts, entertainment or recreation; Civil service or local Government; Financial services (incl. Insurance); Food production, agriculture, farming; Health care; Hospitality; Information technology and communication; Manufacturing or construction; Other occupation sector; Retail sector (incl. wholesale); Social care; Teaching and education; Transport (incl. storage, logistic); Personal services (e.g., hairdressers, tattooists), and Armed forces.
12. Due to low number reported working in “Personal services (e.g., hairdressers, tattooists)” and “Armed forces”, these categories were combined with “Other occupation sector”.
13. This self-reported definition of sector is not compatible with other definitions of sector such as Standard Industrial Classifications (SIC).