Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 1 April 2022
This report brings together the different sources of evidence and data about the Covid epidemic to summarise the current situation, why we are at that place, and what is likely to happen next.
Footnotes
1. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): state of the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
2. A credible interval gives an indication of the uncertainty of an estimate from data analysis based on a sample population. 95% credible intervals are calculated so that there is a 95% probability of the true value lying in the interval.
3. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): modelling the epidemic
4. Using data to 28 March 2022.
5. No R value was published for the week beginning 27 December 2021 as publications were paused over the festive period. The most recent data point for R is dated 30 March 2022, reflecting the R value as at 15 March.
6. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): modelling the epidemic
7. Using data to 28 March 2022.
8. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): modelling the epidemic
9. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): modelling the epidemic
10. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): modelling the epidemic
11. This chart shows data from early 2022, at which point the Omicron variant represents almost all cases in Scotland.
12. The latest CIS estimates up to the week to 26 March were not available at the time that Figure 2 was produced. As a result, Figure 2 uses last week's CIS estimates (up to the week to 20 March 2022). See the following section for the latest CIS estimates.
13. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): infection survey
14. A credible interval gives an indication of the uncertainty of an estimate from data analysis based on a sample population. 95% credible intervals are calculated so that there is a 95% probability of the true value lying in the interval.
15. Please note different reference dates for Scotland and other three nations. The ONS aims to provide the estimates of positivity rate that are most timely and representative of each week, and decides the most recent week to report on based on the availability of test results. On most occasions, the reference dates align perfectly, but sometimes this is not feasible. For more information, see section "11. Measuring the data" in Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK: 18 March 2022
16. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): infection survey
17. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): trends in daily data (accessed 30 March 2022)
18. Scottish Government: Omicron variant
19. Public Health Scotland: COVID-19 statistical report
21. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): infection survey
22. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): infection survey
23. Public Health Scotland: COVID-19 statistical report - 30 March 2022 - COVID-19 statistical report
25. SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation (publishing.service.gov.uk)
26. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard (accessed 30 March 2022)
27. Before 5 January 2022, the case rate includes only positive laboratory confirmed PCR tests.
28. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard (accessed 30 March 2022)
29. Before 5 January 2022, the case rate includes only a positive laboratory confirmed PCR tests.
30. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): trends in daily data (accessed 30 March 2022)
31. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): trends in daily data (accessed 30 March 2022)
32. Scottish Government: Omicron variant
33. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard (accessed 30 March 2022)
34. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Statistical Report (accessed 30 March 2022)
35. Results are taken from questions run on behalf of Scottish Government on the YouGov online omnibus survey. Question 'Coronavirus tests typically take two forms – Rapid 'Lateral Flow or LFD' tests (sometimes called Antigen Tests), which give a test result in 30 minutes and are usually self-administered, or PCR Tests mostly conducted at official Test Sites (but also available as a 'Home Kit) – processed by a laboratory, with results available within 48 hours. In both tests, a swab of nose and/or throat is needed. Which of the following applies to you in relation to testing for Covid-19 in the past week (i.e. since 8 March)?'
36. Question -Thinking about the last lateral flow/antigen test you did in the past week…Which of the following best describes you in relation to that test? (Base: 533 - All who have taken a Lateral Flow/antigen test in the last week)
37. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic
38. The sample is demographically and geographically representative of adults 18+ across Scotland, with circa 1000 responses each week fieldwork is conducted. YouGov apply weighting to the data to match the population profile to adjust for any over/under representations and to maximise consistency from wave to wave. Parameters used include age, gender, social class, region and level of education.
39. The sample is demographically representative of adults 18+ across Scotland, with circa 3000 responses over two alternating panels. This is modelled to represent the Scottish population.
40. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): Trends in Daily Data (accessed 30 March 2022)
41. ICU includes combined ICU/HDU figures and both patients with length of stay 28 days or less and with length of stay more than 28 days. Please note that only patients with length of stay 28 days or less in ICU were recorded until 20 January 2021. From 20 January 2021 ICU short and long stay includes both ICU or combined ICU/HDU with length of stay 28 days or less and with length of stay more than 28 days.
42. Before 9 February 2022, patients were only included if they had a recent positive laboratory confirmed PCR test. Hospital and ICU occupancy includes reinfections from 7 March 2022 onwards.
43. The State of the Epidemic report incorporates data up to and including 30 March 2022, so any revisions since then will not be included in this report.
44. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard (accessed 30 March 2022)
45. The State of the Epidemic report incorporates data up to and including 30 March 2022, so any revisions since then will not be included in this report.
46. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard (accessed 30 March 2022)
47. Covid-19 related admissions have been identified as the following: A patient's first positive test for Covid-19 up to 14 days prior to admission to hospital, on the day of their admission or during their stay in hospital. If a patient's first positive test is after their date of discharge from hospital, they are not included in the analysis. An admission is defined as a period of stay in a single hospital. If the patient has been transferred to another hospital during treatment, each transfer will create a new admission record.
48. Before 9 January 2022, hospital admissions were only included if the patient had a recent positive laboratory confirmed PCR test. ICU admissions rely on PCR testing only. Hospital admissions data in the chart now includes reinfections and has been updated to include this methodology retrospectively to the start of the pandemic.
49. To illustrate the impact of revisions, we include an example of the upward revision for the latest data point used in the week-on-week comparison: the number of admissions in the week to 12 March was first reported as 977 on 16 March but has now been revised to 1,377 as reported on 30 March, a 41% increase. Please note that this increase is not representative of other revisions around this time and should not be used to determine the most recent trend.
50. Public Health Scotland: PHS Covid-19 Education Report
51. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 statistical report - 30 March 2022
52. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 statistical report - 30 March 2022
53. UK Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19) in the UK (accessed 30 March 2022)
54. Hospital occupancy data across the four nations refers to the week ending 29 March due to availability of data, whereas the main hospital occupancy section for Scotland only in this report refers to the week ending 30 March.
55. NRS Scotland: Deaths involving coronavirus (Covid-19) in Scotland
56. NRS Scotland: Deaths involving coronavirus (Covid-19) in Scotland
57. NRS Scotland: Deaths involving coronavirus (Covid-19) in Scotland
58. Deaths within 28 days of positive test.
59. UK Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19) in the UK (accessed 30 March 2022)
60. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard | Tableau Public (accessed 30 March 2022)
61. Coronavirus (COVID-19) booster vaccination | The coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine (nhsinform.scot)
62. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard | Tableau Public (accessed 30 March 2022)
63. SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation (publishing.service.gov.uk)
64. SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation (publishing.service.gov.uk)
65. University of Edinburgh: Severity of Omicron variant of concern and vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease
66. Imperial College Covid-19 response team: Report 50: Hospitalisation risk for Omicron cases in England
67. UK Health Security Agency: SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation
69. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard (accessed 30 March 2022)
70. For the case rates behind the map, please refer to Annex Table 1.
71. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): modelling the epidemic
72. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard
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