Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 1 April 2022

Summary

The positivity estimate from the Covid-19 Infection Survey for Scotland continued to increase over the most recent two weeks, but the trend was uncertain in the most recent week. In recent weeks, wastewater Covid-19 RNA levels have sharply increased and this trend continued in the latest week. Meanwhile, the weekly case rate (including reinfections) in Scotland has decreased slightly in the most recent week. Omicron BA.2 continues to be the dominant variant in Scotland; its incidence had been increasing in recent weeks, however the trend is uncertain in the most recent week, according to the Covid-19 Infection Survey.

In the latest week, case rates have decreased in all age groups compared to the previous week; the greatest decrease in case rates was 28% for those aged 0 to 19 years. The trend in estimates of positivity levels by age group from the Covid-19 Infection Survey are uncertain in the most recent week.

Covid-19 related daily hospital occupancy has continued to increase in the most recent week, reaching the highest levels seen throughout the pandemic. Combined ICU occupancy has decreased in the most recent week. Weekly hospital admissions have increased in the week to 12 March. Those aged 60 or older continue to represent the majority of hospital admissions, but the average number of hospital admissions for children and young people has reached its highest levels so far in the pandemic. The weekly number of Covid-19 deaths continued to increase in the last week, with the majority of deaths occurring in those aged 65 and over.

Key Points

• The UK Health Security Agency's (UKHSA) consensus estimate for R in Scotland as at 15 March is between 0.9 and 1.1. The lower and upper limit of the R value have both decreased since the last published figure.
• UKHSA was unable to reach a consensus on the incidence of new daily infections in Scotland as at 15 March.
• The latest estimated growth rate for Scotland as at 15 March was between -1% and 2%. The upper and lower growth limits have both decreased since the previous week.
• As determined through the latest weekly ONS Covid-19 Infection Survey (CIS), in Scotland, the percentage of people living in private residential households testing positive for Covid-19 increased over the most recent two weeks, but the trend was uncertain in the week 20 to 26 March 2022. In the latest week, the estimated percentage of people testing positive was 8.57% (95% credible interval: 7.89% to 9.27%)^[2], equating to around 1 in 12 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 13 to 1 in 11). In the latest four weeks, the estimates of positivity have surpassed the previous peak from early January 2022.
• Nationwide, wastewater Covid-19 levels have continued to increase. The week ending on the 29 March saw levels of around 297 million gene copies per person per day (Mgc/p/d), an increase of around a half from 200 Mgc/p/d the previous week (week ending 22 March).
• The sublineage Omicron BA.2 is the dominant variant in Scotland. Of the new cases in Scotland that were notified on 28 March from UKGov laboratories, 95.1% were S gene positive, which is used as a reasonable proxy for tracking Omicron BA.2. By comparison, according to the Covid-19 Infection Survey, its incidence had been increasing in recent weeks, however the trend is uncertain in the most recent week to 26 March. The Survey estimated that 7.17% (95% credible interval: 6.54% to 7.84%) of the private residential population would have tested positive with a Covid-19 infection compatible with BA.2 on 23 March.
• By specimen date, the seven-day combined PCR and LFD case rate (including reinfections) decreased in Scotland in the week leading up to 27 March. There were 1,311 weekly combined PCR and LFD cases per 100,000 population in the week to 27 March, which is a 15% decrease from 1,536 weekly cases per 100,000 on 20 March.
• The week leading up to 27 March saw decreasing case rates in all age groups compared to the week ending 20 March. In the most recent week, the greatest decrease in case rates was 28% for those aged 0 to 19 years. There was a slight decrease for those aged 50 and older which ranged from 5% decrease among those aged 60 to 69, to 12% decrease among those aged 80 or older.
• In the week to 27 March, there were 593 reported cases among care home residents, which is a decrease of 25% from the previous week ending 20 March (793 cases). The number of cases in the most recent week is lower than previous peak of 833 weekly cases in the week to 9 January 2022 and has decreased to below the previous peak of 641 weekly cases in the week to 10 January 2021.
• The proportion of reinfections among total weekly cases has increased in the most recent week to 27 March to 10.5% of cases, which is the highest level of reinfections seen in the pandemic.
• In the week to 30 March, daily Covid-19 hospital occupancy continued to increase to the highest level reported throughout the pandemic. NHS boards reported 2,344 patients in hospital or in short stay ICU on 30 March, a 4% increase compared to the previous week. Combined ICU occupancy has decreased by 6 patients on 30 March compared to a week previously, to a total of 26 patients.
• According to data from Public Health Scotland, there were 1,377 admissions to hospital for people with confirmed Covid-19 in the week to 12 March which is a 17% increase on the previous week (to 5 March). There were 38 admissions to ICU for people with confirmed Covid-19 in the week to 15 March which compares to 25 in the week to 8 March. There are a large number of daily revisions to admissions data for the latest two weeks, so the week-on-week comparisons are lagged by two weeks.
• According to data from the PHS Education Dashboard, average hospital admissions related to Covid-19 in children and young adults have continued to increase in the three-week period to 23 March, and have reached the highest levels seen in the pandemic, at 185 average weekly admissions.
• The overall number of Covid-19 deaths has increased by 59%, or 71 deaths, to a total of 192 deaths in the week leading up to 27 March, compared to 121 in the week leading up to 20 March.
• In the week leading up to 27 March 2022, Na h-Eileanan Siar had the highest combined PCR and LFD weekly case rate by specimen date, reporting 2,898 cases per 100,000 population. Orkney Islands had the lowest weekly combined LFD and PCR case rate in the same time period, reporting 781 cases per 100,000.

Method

This report brings together a wide range of publicly available figures from a range of data sources. These include publications by Scottish Government, Public Heath Scotland, National Records of Scotland and Office for National Statistics along with scientific publications and SAGE and UKHSA summaries where appropriate to summarise the state of the epidemic in Scotland in a given week. We also provide information on public attitudes to the virus from weekly YouGov polling surveys.