Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 1 April 2022

Looking ahead

Scottish Contact Survey

Changes in patterns of mixing will impact on future case numbers. The Scottish Contact Survey measures the times and settings in which people mix where they could potentially spread Covid-19. Average contacts from the most recent Panel A cohort of the Scottish Contact Survey (week ending 23 March) indicate an average of 4.1 contacts.

Mean contacts have decreased in the majority of locations with the exception of contacts within the home setting which have remained at a similar level in the last two weeks. Contacts have reduced in the work setting by 11% and in the other setting (contacts outside home, school and work) by 8%. Individuals within the youngest age groups (18-59) have reported a decrease in contacts within the last two weeks, by at least 15%. Those within the older age groups (60+) have increased their contacts in the last two weeks with those over 70 increasing the most, by 12%.

Modelling the Epidemic

SPI-M-O has not produced medium-term projections this week and therefore the usual Scottish Government medium term projections have not been included in the Modelling the Epidemic Report, or in this report.

Long Covid

According to the Office for National Statistic (ONS), long Covid is defined as symptoms persisting more than four weeks after the first suspected coronavirus (Covid-19) episode that are not explained by something else.

Estimates of the proportion of people in the private residential population in Scotland that experience long Covid symptoms are published by the ONS Covid-19 Infection Survey on a monthly basis. The next scheduled release of long Covid data from the Covid-19 Infection Survey is expected to be summarised in this report on 14 April. For information on the most recent estimates, see the State of the Epidemic report published on 4 March 2022.

Weekly modelled estimates for Scotland are also usually published in the Modelling the Epidemic report, which can be found here. However, a report on the rate of long Covid-19 has not been included this week. This will resume again once updated estimates of self-reported long Covid-19 prevalence amongst those infected with the less severe Omicron variant become available.