Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 4 February 2022

Summary

The daily positivity estimates from the Covid-19 Infection Survey for Scotland appear to be starting to level off from mid to late January, although the trend in the week to 29 January is (statistically) uncertain. This roughly aligns with the trends seen in PCR and LFD reported cases, which have levelled off since around 18 January 2022. However, there may be early indication of Covid-19 viral levels in wastewater showing a slight increase in some areas of the country.

Weekly PCR and LFD cases have decreased in all age groups apart from those aged 14 or below in the period from 12 January to 2 February. However, the weekly case rate for those aged 14 and below has now started to decrease, after peaking on 27 January, and those aged 20 to 24 and 15 to 19 have increased by 29% and 26%, respectively, in the week to 2 February.

Admissions to hospital and ICU have continued to decrease in the most recent week since peaking in early January 2022. Covid-19 deaths have decreased in the week leading up to 30 January and there were fewer fatalities among those over 85.

Key Points

• The reproduction rate R in Scotland is between 0.6 and 0.9, as at 18 January. The lower limit of the R value has decreased since the last published R value, while the upper limit has remained unchanged.
• As at 18 January, the UKHSA’s consensus view was that the incidence of new daily infections in Scotland was between 146 and 270 new infections per 100,000 people.
• The daily growth rate for Scotland is currently estimated as between -8% and

-1% as at 18 January 2022. The upper limit has increased since the previous week, while the lower growth limit remains unchanged.

• As determined through the latest weekly ONS infection survey, the percentage of people testing positive for Covid-19 in the private residential population in Scotland decreased in the two weeks up to 29 January 2022, but the trend was (statistically) uncertain in the most recent week. It is estimated that around 1 in 30 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 30 to 1 in 25) in Scotland had COVID-19 at any given time in the week ending 29 January 2022.
• The seven-day average number of combined PCR or LFD daily reported cases has levelled off since around the 18 January. By reporting date, an average number of 7,144 cases confirmed by either a PCR or LFD test were reported per day in the week leading up to 2 February. This a slight decrease from the daily average of 7,394 cases reported in the week leading up to 26 January.
• Data from the PHS Daily Dashboard shows that as of 2 February, the highest combined PCR and LFD weekly case rates by reporting date per 100,000 were observed amongst those aged 0-14, followed by those aged 25 to 44, 15 to 19, 20 to 24, and 45 to 64. The lowest total weekly combined PCR and LFD case rates per 100,000 were in the age groups 65-74, aged 85 and above, and 75 to 84.
• According to data from the PHS education dashboard, total combined PCR and LFD weekly case rates per 100,000 among children and young adults in the week leading up to 30 January have decreased for those aged under 16 compared to the previous week (ending 23 January). In the same time period, the weekly case rate has increased in age groups 16 and above.
• As of 24 January 2022, 3.1% of all PCR confirmed cases in Scotland throughout the pandemic were determined to be reinfections, according to the 90-day threshold. The proportion of reinfections has seen an increase in December 2021 and January 2022, to 6.4% and 9.8%, respectively, of all reported PCR cases.
• In the week to and including 2 February, Covid-19 hospital occupancy decreased overall by 20% and Covid-19 ICU occupancy (short and long stay) decreased by 9% from the previous week (26 January 2022).
• Admissions to hospital in the week to 30 January decreased by 23% compared to the previous week ending 23 January, while ICU admissions have decreased by 21% in the week to 2 February compared to the previous week ending 26 January.
• Average hospital admissions (three-week rolling average) related to Covid-19 in children and young adults (aged under 22) have decreased all age groups, except for those aged between 2 and 11, in the three weeks leading up to 26 January compared to the previous three-week period leading up to 19 January. These figures refer both to young patients in hospital because of Covid-19 and with Covid-19.
• After a period of decrease in the number of Covid-19 deaths throughout the last quarter of 2021, the three weeks leading up to 23 January 2022 have seen a sharp increase in deaths where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate. While remaining high, the number of Covid-19 deaths has decreased by 17% to 121 deaths in the week leading up to 30 January compared to the week leading up to 23 January.
• In the week leading up to 2 February 2022, Aberdeen City had the highest combined PCR and LFD weekly case rate by reporting date, reporting 1,320 weekly cases per 100,000 population. Na h-Eileanan Siar had the lowest weekly combined LFD and PCR case rate in the same time period, reporting 279 cases per 100,000.
• Although combined PCR and LFD case rates have slightly decreased, a higher proportion of cases are identified as the Omicron variant sub-lineage BA.2 in Scotland and the UK. Initial analysis indicated this is due to a possible increase in transmissibility compared to the Omicron sub-lineage BA.1, which was the first to emerge in the UK.

Method

This report brings together a wide range of publically available figures from a range of data sources. These include publications by Scottish Government, Public Heath Scotland, National Records of Scotland and Office for National Statistics along with scientific publications and SAGE and UKHSA summaries where appropriate to summarise the state of the epidemic in Scotland in a given week. We also provide information on public attitudes to the virus from weekly YouGov polling surveys.