Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 4 February 2022
This report brings together the different sources of evidence and data about the Covid epidemic to summarise the current situation, why we are at that place, and what is likely to happen next.
Footnotes
1 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
2 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
3 Using data to 31 January 2022.
4 No R value was published for the week beginning 27 December 2021 as publications were paused over the festive period. The most recent data point for R is dated 26 January 2022, reflecting the R value as of 11 January 2022.
5 Using data to 31 January 2022.
6 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
7 Using data to 31 January 2022.
8 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
9 A credible interval gives an indication of the uncertainty of an estimate from data analysis based on a sample population. 95% credible intervals are calculated so that there is a 95% probability of the true value lying in the interval.
10 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): infection survey - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
11 Ibid.
12 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
13 Ibid.
14 Ibid.
15 The reporting date is when the result of the test is authorised and released to Public Health Scotland by NHS Scotland and UK Government Regional Testing Laboratories.
16 Please note that this is experimental statistics
17 Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard
18 These figures are produced by Public Health Scotland as “experimental statistics” and may be subject to future revision as the new method for counting combined PCR and LFD tests evolves.
19 The specimen date is the date the sample was collected from the patient.
20 Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard
21 Source: Public Health Scotland
22 Ibid.
23 Source: Public Health Scotland
24 Public Health Scotland: PHS COVID-19 Education Report
25 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): daily data for Scotland
26 Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Statistical Report
27 Ibid.
28 Results are taken from questions run on behalf of Scottish Government on the YouGov online omnibus survey. Question ‘Coronavirus tests typically take two forms – Rapid ‘Lateral Flow or LFD’ tests (sometimes called Antigen Tests), which give a test result in 30 minutes and are usually self-administered, or PCR Tests mostly conducted at official Test Sites (but also available as a ‘Home Kit) – processed by a laboratory, with results available within 48 hours. In both tests, a swab of nose and/or throat is needed. Which of the following applies to you in relation to testing for Covid-19 in the past week (i.e. since 18 January)?’
29 Question -Thinking about the LAST lateral flow/antigen test you did in the past week…Which of the following best describes you in relation to that test? (Base: 550 - All who have taken a Lateral Flow/antigen test in the last week)
30 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
31 The sample is demographically and geographically representative of adults 18+ across Scotland, with circa 1000 responses each week fieldwork is conducted. YouGov apply weighting to the data to match the population profile to adjust for any over/under representations and to maximise consistency from wave to wave. Parameters used include age, gender, social class, region and level of education.
32 The sample is demographically representative of adults 18+ across Scotland, with circa 3000 responses over two alternating panels. This is modelled to represent the Scottish population.
33 Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Statistical Report
34 Ibid.
35 Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Statistical Report
36 Public Health Scotland: Coronavirus (COVID-19): Trends in Daily Data
37 ICU or combined ICU/HDU (with length of stay 28 days or less and with length of stay more than 28 days). Please note that only patients with length of stay 28 days or less in ICU were recorded until 20 January 2021. From 20 January 2021 ICU short and long stay includes both ICU or combined ICU/HDU with length of stay 28 days or less and with length of stay more than 28 days.
38 Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard
39 Ibid.
40 Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Statistical Report
41 This relates to an age-standardised rate of hospital admissions per 100,000. Please note that these statistics do not differentiate between individuals in hospital with COVID-19 illness requiring hospitalisation compared to those in hospital for other reasons (e.g. routine operations) for whom COVID-19 was identified incidentally through testing but they are not requiring hospitalisation because of their COVID-19 symptoms.
42 Covid-19 related admissions have been identified as the following: A patient’s first positive test for COVID-19 up to 14 days prior to admission to hospital, on the day of their admission or during their stay in hospital. If a patient’s first positive test is after their date of discharge from hospital, they are not included in the analysis. An admission is defined as a period of stay in a single hospital. If the patient has been transferred to another hospital during treatment, each transfer will create a new admission record.
43 Public Health Scotland: PHS COVID-19 Education Report
44 Public Health Scotland: COVID-19 Statistical Report 26 January 2022
45 Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Statistical Report
46 Refers to the period when Delta was the dominant variant
47 Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Statistical Report
48 UK Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK (accessed 2 February 2022)
49 Ibid.
50 NRS Scotland: Deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19) in Scotland
51 Ibid.
52 NRS Scotland: Deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19) in Scotland
53 Deaths within 28 days of positive test.
54 UK Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK (accessed 2 February 2022)
55 World Health Organisation: Enhancing Readiness for Omicron (B.1.1.529) [17 December 2021]
56 UK Health Security Agency: SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and under investigation - Technical briefing 31
57 UK Government: COVID-19 variants identified in the UK
58 UK Health Security Agency: SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England [28 January 2022]
59 UK Health Security Agency: Risk assessment for SARS-CoV-2 variant: VUI-22JAN-01 (BA.2) [26 January 2022]
60 UK Health Security Agency: COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report [3 February 2022]
61 Ibid.
62 University of Edinburgh: Severity of Omicron variant of concern and vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease
63 Imperial College COVID-19 response team: Report 50: Hospitalisation risk for Omicron cases in England
64 UK Health Security Agency: SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation
65 Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard
66 Using data to 31 January 2022
67 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
68 Ibid.
69 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
70 Ibid.
71 Following the announcement removing the need for a confirmatory PCR test in some cases combined PCR and LFD reported date data has been used from 6th January.
72 Office for National Statistics: Prevalence of ongoing symptoms following coronavirus (COVID-19) infection in the UK: 3 February 2022
73 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
74 Ibid.
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