Publication - Research and analysis

Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 4 March 2022

Published: 4 March 2022
From: Director-General Health and Social Care
Directorate: Constitution Directorate
Topic: Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Scotland
ISBN: 9781804351857

This report brings together the different sources of evidence and data about the Covid epidemic to summarise the current situation, why we are at that place, and what is likely to happen next.

Supporting documents

Footnotes

^1. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): state of the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

^2. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): modelling the epidemic

^3. Using data to 28 February 2022.

^4. No R value was published for the week beginning 27 December 2021 as publications were paused over the festive period. The most recent data point for R is dated 2 March 2022, reflecting the R value as at 15 February.

^5. Using data to 28 February 2022.

^6. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): modelling the epidemic

^7. Using data to 21 February 2022.

^8. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

^9. A credible interval gives an indication of the uncertainty of an estimate from data analysis based on a sample population. 95% credible intervals are calculated so that there is a 95% probability of the true value lying in the interval.

^10. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): infection survey - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

^11. UK Government: VUI-22JAN-01_BA.pdf">23 February 2022 risk assessment for VUI 22JAN-01_BA.pdf

^12. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): modelling the epidemic

^13. Ibid.

^14. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): modelling the epidemic

^15. The reporting date is when the result of the test is authorised and released to Public Health Scotland by NHS Scotland and UK Government Regional Testing Laboratories.

^16. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): trends in daily data

^17. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): trends in daily data

^18. The specimen date is the date the sample was collected from the patient.

^19.Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard

^20. Before 5 January 2022, the case rate includes only positive laboratory confirmed PCR tests.

^21. Ibid.

^22. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard

^23. Before 5 January 2022, the case rate includes only a positive laboratory confirmed PCR tests.

^24. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): trends in daily data

^25. Scottish Government: Omicron variant

^26. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Statistical Report

^27. Ibid.

^28. Results are taken from questions run on behalf of Scottish Government on the YouGov online omnibus survey. Question 'Coronavirus tests typically take two forms – Rapid 'Lateral Flow or LFD' tests (sometimes called Antigen Tests), which give a test result in 30 minutes and are usually self-administered, or PCR Tests mostly conducted at official Test Sites (but also available as a 'Home Kit) – processed by a laboratory, with results available within 48 hours. In both tests, a swab of nose and/or throat is needed. Which of the following applies to you in relation to testing for Covid-19 in the past week (i.e. since 8 February)?'

^29. Question -Thinking about the LAST lateral flow/antigen test you did in the past week…Which of the following best describes you in relation to that test? (Base: 518 - All who have taken a Lateral Flow/antigen test in the last week)

^30. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic

^31. The sample is demographically and geographically representative of adults 18+ across Scotland, with circa 1000 responses each week fieldwork is conducted. YouGov apply weighting to the data to match the population profile to adjust for any over/under representations and to maximise consistency from wave to wave. Parameters used include age, gender, social class, region and level of education.

^32. The sample is demographically representative of adults 18+ across Scotland, with circa 3000 responses over two alternating panels. This is modelled to represent the Scottish population.

^33. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): Trends in Daily Data

^34. ICU includes combined ICU/HDU figures and both patients with length of stay 28 days or less and with length of stay more than 28 days. Please note that only patients with length of stay 28 days or less in ICU were recorded until 20 January 2021. From 20 January 2021 ICU short and long stay includes both ICU or combined ICU/HDU with length of stay 28 days or less and with length of stay more than 28 days.

^35. Before 9 February 2022, patients were only included if they had a recent positive laboratory confirmed PCR test.

^36. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard

^37. Ibid.

^38. Data on hospital admissions goes up to 26 February 2022 and data for admissions to ICU up to 1 March 2022.

^39. Covid-19 related admissions have been identified as the following: A patient's first positive test for Covid-19 up to 14 days prior to admission to hospital, on the day of their admission or during their stay in hospital. If a patient's first positive test is after their date of discharge from hospital, they are not included in the analysis. An admission is defined as a period of stay in a single hospital. If the patient has been transferred to another hospital during treatment, each transfer will create a new admission record.

^40. Before 9 January 2022, hospital admissions were only included if the patient had a recent positive laboratory confirmed PCR test. ICU admissions rely on PCR testing only.

^41. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 statistical report - 2 March 2022

^42. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 & Winter Statistical Report - 16 February 2022

^43. Public Health Scotland: PHS Covid-19 Education Report

^44. UK Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19) in the UK (accessed 2 March 2022)

^45. Ibid.

^46. NRS Scotland: Deaths involving coronavirus (Covid-19) in Scotland

^47. Ibid.

^48. NRS Scotland: Deaths involving coronavirus (Covid-19) in Scotland

^49. Deaths within 28 days of positive test.

^50. UK Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19) in the UK (accessed 2 March 2022)

^51. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard | Tableau Public

^52. Investigation of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: variant risk assessments - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)