Coronavirus (COVID-19) state of the epidemic 10 December 2021
This report brings together the different sources of evidence and data about the Covid epidemic to summarise the current situation, why we are at that place, and what is likely to happen next.
Footnotes
1. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
2. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
3. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
4. Scottish Government: https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
(week on week comparison may be affected by data flow issue.)
5. Coronavirus (COVID-19): additional data and information - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
6. Public Health Scotland COVID-19 statistical report
7. Public Health Scotland Covid-19 dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview
8. Source: Public Health Scotland
9. Public Health Scotland: PHS COVID-19 Education report (shinyapps.io)
10. https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
11. Public Health Scotland COVID-19 statistical report
12. Figures for test positivity rate in the last 7 days are available from 24 August 2020. Gaps in the line chart represent missing data for the periods 28 July 2021 to 2 August 2021 and 16 September 2021
13. Scottish Government: https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
14. ibid
15. ICU or combined ICU/HDU (with length of stay 28 days or less and with length of stay more than 28 days). Please note that only patients with length of stay 28 days or less in ICU were recorded until 20 January 2021. From 20 January 2021 ICU short and long stay includes both ICU or combined ICU/HDU with length of stay 28 days or less and with length of stay more than 28 days.
16. Public Health Scotland dashboard: COVID-19 Daily Dashboard - PHS COVID-19 | Tableau Public.
17. Public Health Scotland COVID-19 statistical report
18. Public Health Scotland COVID-19 Statistical Report
19. ibid
21. ibid
22. Public Health Scotland COVID19 statistical report
23. ibid
24. ibid
25. Public Health Scotland Covid-19 dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview
26. Public Health Scotland Covid-19 dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview
27. Source: YouGov online survey. Total sample size on 30 November – 1 December was 1001 adults. Sample size for those who have not yet received their first vaccine was 48 adults. 'Likely' to be vaccinated refers to respondents who rated themselves 8 to 10 on a scale of 0-10 for the question: How likely or unlikely are you to be vaccinated for COVID-19 when a vaccine becomes available to you? (Please select a number between 0 and 10, where 0 means 'extremely unlikely' and 10 means 'extremely likely')
28. Public Health Scotland Covid dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview
29. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
30. ibid
31. UK Government: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
32. UK Government: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
33. Office for National Statistics: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
34. Office for National Statistics: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, antibody and vaccination data, UK - Office for National Statistics
35. Office for National Statistics: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/2december2021
37. Omicron in Scotland - Evidence Paper - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
38. UK case definitions. Confirmed case: COVID-19 variant of concern Omicron by sequencing or genotyping. Highly Probable: COVID 19 PCR positive, S Gene Target Failure (dropout) plus travel history from RSA, Botswana, Namibia, Nigeria, Eswatini, Lesotho, Zimbabwe, Angola, Zambia, Malawi, and Mozambique with specimen dates from 01 Nov 21 as confirmed by case interview (cases that are confirmed as another strain are excluded) Or COVID PCR/LFD positive contact of a confirmed case. Possible case under investigation: COVID 19 PCR positive plus S Gene Target Failure (dropout) and specimen dates from 01 Nov 21
39. Omicron in Scotland - Evidence Paper - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
40. Public Health Scotland COVID-19 statistical report
41. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
42. The modelling in this report uses S-gene test data to 6th December only.
43. S1236_Eighty-nineth_SAGE.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)
44. Risk assessment for SARS-CoV-2 variant: VOC-21APR-02 (B.1.617.2) (publishing.service.gov.uk)
45. S1284_SAGE_92_minutes.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)
46. Variants: distribution of cases data - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
47. Brief note on SARS-CoV-2 variants (publishing.service.gov.uk)
48. Brief note on SARS-CoV-2 B.1.351 - 27 January 2021 (publishing.service.gov.uk)
49. Brief note on SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern P.1 (publishing.service.gov.uk)
50. COVID-19 variants: genomically confirmed case numbers - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
53. COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 48 (publishing.service.gov.uk)
54. BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 Vaccine Effectiveness against Death from the Delta Variant | NEJM
55. COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 46 (publishing.service.gov.uk)
56. JCVI statement, September 2021: COVID-19 booster vaccine programme for winter 2021 to 2022 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
57. JCVI advice on the UK vaccine response to the Omicron variant - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
58. COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 46 (publishing.service.gov.uk)
59. Update on Omicron (who.int)
61. https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.47.2101021
62. Results are taken from questions run on behalf of Scottish Government on the YouGov online omnibus survey. The sample is demographically and geographically representative of adults 18+ across Scotland, with c. 1000 responses each week. Fieldwork took place on 30 November – 1 December with a total sample size of 1001 adults. 'Complete' or 'almost complete' compliance refers to respondents who rated themselves 6 or 7 on a scale of 1-7 for the question:Thinking about ALL of the guidance on what to do and what not to do during the Coronavirus pandemic (including distancing, protection measures and all restrictions).On a scale of 1-7, where 1 is 'Not at all' and 7 is 'Completely', to what extent do you feel you are following the regulations and guidance?
63. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
64. The difference between the scenarios: 'Central' assumes that infections will plateau at the current level. 'Worse' assumes a rise in transmission from the current level. 'Better' assumes a drop in transmission. All scenarios are based on current vaccine roll-out plans and efficacy assumptions.
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