Coronavirus (COVID-19) state of the epidemic 10 June 2022

Looking ahead

Scottish Contact Survey

Changes in patterns of mixing will likely impact on future Covid-19 prevalence. The Scottish Contact Survey measures the times and settings in which people mix where they could potentially spread Covid-19^[58]. Average contacts from the most recent wave of the Scottish Contact Survey (26 May to 1 June) indicate an average of 4.9 contacts. This has remained at a similar level compared to the previous wave of the survey (12 to 18 May).

Mean contacts within the work setting have increased in the last two weeks by 14% whereas contacts within the other setting (contacts outside home, school and work) have decreased by 13%. Contacts within the home have remained at a similar level over the same period.

All age groups with the exception of those within the 50-59 age group have reported a decrease in contacts.

Modelling the Epidemic

Scottish Government medium-term projections on infections, and hospital and ICU occupancy are not included in this edition of the report, or the Modelling the Epidemic Report this week.

Long Covid-19

According to the Office for National Statistic (ONS), long Covid is defined as symptoms persisting more than four weeks after the first suspected coronavirus (Covid-19) episode that are not explained by something else.

The ONS Covid-19 Infection Survey estimated that around 1,988,000 people (95% confidence interval: 1,938,000 to 2,038,000) in the private residential population in the UK (3.07% of the respective population; 95% CI: 3.00% to 3.15%) reported experiencing long Covid of any duration over the four-week period ending 1 May 2022. In Scotland, over the same period, an estimated 155,000 people (95% CI: 142,000 to 169,000) in the private residential population (2.95% of the respective population; 95% CI: 2.69% to 3.21%) reported experiencing long Covid of any duration. This compares to:

• 3.09% in England (95% CI: 3.01% to 3.18%),
• 3.16% in Wales (95% CI: 2.81% to 3.51%), and
• 2.71% in Northern Ireland (95% CI: 2.30% to 3.11%)^[59].

Fortnightly modelled estimates for Scotland are also usually published in the Modelling the Epidemic report. However, a report on the rate of long Covid-19 has not been included this week.