Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 11 February 2022

Summary

The daily positivity estimates from the Covid-19 Infection Survey for Scotland levelled off from mid to late January, and have increased in the week to 5 February 2022. By comparison, the seven-day average number of combined PCR or LFD daily reported cases has levelled off since around 18 January, with a slight overall decrease in the most recent week. Nationwide, wastewater (WW) Covid-19 levels remained at a similar level in the week to 7 February, compared to the previous week.

Weekly PCR and LFD cases have levelled off among all age groups 25 or older since mid-January, but there continues to be a different trend among children and young adults. Those aged 14 or younger have seen a continued decrease in the most recent week, while cases have increased overall among those aged 15 to 24.

Admissions to hospital have continued to decrease in the most recent week since peaking in early January 2022, while admissions to ICU appear to be fluctuating at low levels. Covid-19 deaths have decreased overall in the week leading up to 6 February, however increased in the 85+ during the same period.

Key Points

• The UK Health Security Agency's (UKHSA) consensus estimate for R in Scotland as at 25 January is between 0.8 and 1.0. Both the lower and upper limit of the R value has increased since the last published R value.
• As at 25 January 2022, the UKHSA's consensus view was that the incidence of new daily infections in Scotland was between 168 and 292 per 100,000 people.
• The latest growth rate for Scotland as at 25 January was between -5% and -1%. The upper limit has remained unchanged since the previous week, and the lower growth limit has increased.
• As determined through the latest weekly ONS infection survey, the percentage of people testing positive for Covid-19 in the private residential population in Scotland increased in the week to 5 February 2022. It is estimated that around 1 in 25 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 30 to 1 in 20) in Scotland had COVID-19 at any given time in the week ending 5 February 2022.
• Nationwide, wastewater (WW) Covid-19 levels remained at their previous levels, with the week ending on 7 February recording levels of 52 million gene copies per person per day (Mgc/p/d), essentially the same as 53 Mgc/p/d the previous week (ending 31 January). There is some slight variability between locations, but it is not yet clear if this forms any systematic pattern.
• The seven-day average number of combined PCR or LFD daily reported cases has levelled off since around the 18 January. By reporting date, an average number of 6,718 cases confirmed by either a PCR or LFD test were reported per day in the week leading up to 9 February. This is a decrease of 6% from the daily average of 7,130 cases reported in the week leading up to 2 February.
• Data from the PHS Daily Dashboard shows that as of 9 February, the highest combined PCR and LFD weekly case rates by reporting date per 100,000 were observed amongst those aged 20 to 24, followed by those aged 15 to 19, 25 to 44, and 0 to 14. The lowest case rates were seen among those aged 65 to 74, 85 and older, and 75 to 84.
• According to data from the PHS education dashboard, total combined PCR and LFD weekly case rates per 100,000 among children and young adults in the week leading up to 6 February have decreased for all age groups under 18 compared to the previous week (ending 30 January). In the same time period, the weekly case rate has increased in age groups 18 to 19 and 20 to 21.
• In the week to and including 9 February, Covid-19 hospital occupancy decreased by 16% compared to the previous week ending 2 February, while combined ICU occupancy decreased by 15% across the same time period.
• Admissions to hospital in the week to 5 February decreased by 10% compared to the previous week ending 29 January, while ICU admissions remain at similar levels in the week to 8 February compared to the previous week ending 1 February.
• Average hospital admissions (three-week rolling average) related to Covid-19 in children and young adults (aged under 22) have decreased across all age groups, except for those aged between 2 and 11, in the three weeks leading up to 2 February compared to the previous three-week period leading up to 26 January. These figures refer both to young patients in hospital because of Covid-19 and with Covid-19, and are linked to PCR cases only.
• The overall number of Covid-19 deaths has continued to decreased in the week leading up to 6 February. Compared to the previous week ending 30 January, the number of deaths decreased slightly by 3%, or 4 deaths, to a total of 118 deaths in the week leading up to 6 February.
• In the week leading up to 9 February 2022, Shetland Islands had the highest combined PCR and LFD weekly case rate by reporting date, reporting 1,810 cases per 100,000 population. Na h-Eileanan Siar had the lowest weekly combined LFD and PCR case rate in the same time period, reporting 374 cases per 100,000.

Method

This report brings together a wide range of publically available figures from a range of data sources. These include publications by Scottish Government, Public Heath Scotland, National Records of Scotland and Office for National Statistics along with scientific publications and SAGE and UKHSA summaries where appropriate to summarise the state of the epidemic in Scotland in a given week. We also provide information on public attitudes to the virus from weekly YouGov polling surveys.