Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 11 March 2022

Background

This report summarises the current situation of the Covid-19 epidemic in Scotland. It brings together the different sources of evidence and data about the epidemic in Scotland at this point in time, why we are at that place, and what is likely to happen next. This updates the previous publication published on 4 March 2022^[1]. The information in this document helps the Scottish Government, the health service and the wider public sector respond to the epidemic and put in place what is needed to keep us safe and treat people who have the virus.

This edition of the State of the Epidemic summarises current data on Covid-19 at a national and local level, and how Scotland currently compares to the rest of the UK. It looks at the vaccination program in Scotland and its impact. Information is provided about variants of concern and what impact these may have. Bringing this information together in one place gives the opportunity to better understand the current state of the epidemic in Scotland.

The State of the Epidemic report this week will summarise data up to and including 9 March 2022.

Notice on Potential Change to Publication Schedule

UKHSA is considering a change in the frequency that Covid-19 modelling estimates are published to every two weeks, from 1 April 2022. As a consequence, the Modelling the Epidemic publication would move to publishing every two weeks from 1 April 2022. To align with the Modelling the Epidemic report, the State of the Epidemic report would also move to publishing every two weeks.

Users are encouraged to provide comments and feedback on the reduction in frequency of the State of the Epidemic report. Please contact us at sgcentralanalysisdivision@gov.scot.

Notice on Trend Data including Reinfections

From 1 March 2022, PHS started reporting on reinfections. Previously COVID-19 cases were based on an individual's first positive (PCR or LFD) test result only. The new daily case calculation includes both new infections and possible reinfections. Possible reinfections are defined as individuals who tests positive, by PCR or LFD, 90 days or more after their last positive test. The change has been applied retrospectively to trend cases, deaths, testing and hospital admissions data reported since the beginning of the pandemic. Reinfections will not apply to ICU admissions as they link on all positive tests. NHS Boards started to include patients with possible reinfections in hospital and ICU occupancy from 7 March 2022.