Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 11 March 2022

Summary

The daily positivity estimate from the Covid-19 Infection Survey for Scotland continued to increase in the most recent week. By comparison, the weekly case rate (including reinfections) in Scotland has increased sharply in the most recent week and wastewater Covid-19 RNA levels have also seen a sharp uptick in the most recent week. According to both wastewater estimates and case rates, this trend is seen across most local authorities in Scotland. This increase may be linked to the increasing prevalence of Omicron BA.2, which is now estimated to be the dominant variant in Scotland.

The case rate (including reinfections) for those aged 60 or over continued to increase in the most recent week; however, increasing case rates were seen across all age groups in Scotland in the most recent week, with the largest increase among those aged 19 or younger. By comparison, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Covid-19 Infection Survey estimates that Covid-19 infection levels are rising among young children and those aged over 40. Cases among care home residents continued to rise in the most recent week.

Covid-19 related daily hospital occupancy has continued to increase in the most recent week, while ICU occupancy remains at similar levels. Hospital admissions related to Covid-19 have increased over the last month while ICU admissions appear to have decreased in this period, but both measures continue to fluctuate on a weekly basis. Those aged 60 or older continue to represent the majority of hospital admissions in the most recent week. The weekly number of Covid-19 deaths registered by NRS increased sharply in the week to 6 March, mostly due to a higher number of deaths among those older than 64.

Key Points

• The UK Health Security Agency's (UKHSA) consensus estimate for R in Scotland as at 22 February is between 0.9 and 1.2. The lower limit of the R value has remained unchanged since the last published figure, but the upper limit has increased.
• The latest growth rate for Scotland as at 22 February was between -1% and 2%. Both the upper and lower limits have remained unchanged since the last published figure.
• As determined through the latest weekly ONS Covid-19 Infection Survey, in Scotland, the percentage of people testing positive for Covid-19 continued to increase in the week 28 February to 6 March 2022. In the same week, it is estimated that around 1 in 18 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 19 to 1 in 16) in Scotland had Covid-19 at any given time.
• Nationwide, wastewater Covid-19 RNA levels have shown an increase in the most recent week. The week ending on 4 March saw levels of just over 100 million gene copies per person per day (Mgc/p/d), up from 74 Mgc/p/d the previous week, an increase of 35%.
• By specimen date, the seven-day combined PCR and LFD case rate (including reinfections) increased in Scotland in the most recent week. There were 1,049 weekly combined PCR and LFD cases per 100,000 population in the week to 5 March, which is a 27% increase from 827 weekly cases per 100,000 on 26 February.
• The week leading up to 5 March saw sharply increasing case rates (including reinfections) across all age groups. Those aged 19 or younger saw the biggest increase, as case rates increased by 39% in this age group compared to the previous week. For those aged 60 and older, the case rates in the week to 5 March had increased by 26% compared to the previous week, and by 97% from the week to 5 February.
• In the week to 6 March there were 583 reported cases among care home residents, which is an increase of 16% from the week ending 27 February (503 weekly cases). Cases among care home residents have been rising since early February, but remain lower than previous peaks in this group.
• The proportion of reinfections among total weekly cases has increased in the most recent week to 9.2% of cases in week ending 5 March, which is the highest level of reinfections seen in the pandemic.
• In the week to and including 9 March, Covid-19 hospital occupancy increased by 23% compared to the previous week ending 2 March, while combined ICU occupancy remained at similar levels in the same time period.
• Admissions to hospital have increased over the past month but continue to fluctuate on a weekly basis, with 852 admissions to hospital in the week to 5 March. The number of admissions to ICU has decreased over the past month, but also appears to be fluctuating on a weekly basis, with 16 new Covid-19 patients admitted to ICU in the week to 8 March.
• According to data from the PHS Education Dashboard, average hospital admissions related to Covid-19 in children and young adults have increased slightly, by 2%, in the three-week period to 2 March (112 average weekly admissions), compared to the previous three-week period to 23 February (109 average weekly admissions).
• The overall number of Covid-19 deaths has increased by 38%, or 30 deaths, to a total of 110 deaths in the week leading up to 6 March, compared to 80 in the week leading up to 27 February. This is mostly due to a higher number of deaths among those older than 64 in the most recent week.
• In the week leading up to 5 March 2022, Orkney Islands had the highest combined PCR and LFD weekly case rate by specimen date, reporting 2,290 cases per 100,000 population. Dumfries and Galloway had the lowest weekly combined LFD and PCR case rate in the same time period, reporting 794 cases per 100,000.

Method

This report brings together a wide range of publically available figures from a range of data sources. These include publications by Scottish Government, Public Heath Scotland, National Records of Scotland and Office for National Statistics along with scientific publications and SAGE and UKHSA summaries where appropriate to summarise the state of the epidemic in Scotland in a given week. We also provide information on public attitudes to the virus from weekly YouGov polling surveys.