Publication - Research and analysis

Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 14 April 2022

Published: 14 April 2022
From: Director-General Health and Social Care
Directorate: Constitution Directorate
Topic: Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Scotland
ISBN: 9781804353516

This report brings together the different sources of evidence and data about the Covid epidemic to summarise the current situation, why we are at that place, and what is likely to happen next.

Supporting documents

Footnotes

1. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): state of the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

2. A credible interval gives an indication of the uncertainty of an estimate from data analysis based on a sample population. 95% credible intervals are calculated so that there is a 95% probability of the true value lying in the interval.

3. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): modelling the epidemic

4. Using data to 11 April 2022.

5. No R value was published for the week beginning 27 December 2021 (as publications were paused over the festive period), and 6 March 2022 (as modelling output moved to fortnightly publications). The most recent data point for R is dated 13 April 2022, reflecting the R value as at 29 March.

6. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): modelling the epidemic

7. Using data to 11 April 2022.

8. Using data to 11 April 2022.

9. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): modelling the epidemic

10. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): modelling the epidemic

11. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): modelling the epidemic

12. This chart shows data from early 2022, at which point the Omicron variant represents almost all cases in Scotland.

13. The latest CIS estimates up to the week to 10 April were not available at the time that Figure 2 was produced. As a result, Figure 2 uses last week's CIS estimates (up to the week to 3 April 2022). See the following section for the latest CIS estimates.

14. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): infection survey

15. A credible interval gives an indication of the uncertainty of an estimate from data analysis based on a sample population. 95% credible intervals are calculated so that there is a 95% probability of the true value lying in the interval.

16. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): infection survey

17. Public Health Scotland: COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview">Covid-19 Daily Dashboard (accessed 12 April 2022)

18. Scottish Government: Omicron variant

19. SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation (publishing.service.gov.uk)

20. SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation (publishing.service.gov.uk)

21. Public Health Scotland: COVID-19 statistical report

22. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): infection survey

23. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): infection survey

24. Public Health Scotland: COVID-19 statistical report - 30 March 2022 - COVID-19 statistical report

25. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-of-concern-variant-risk-assessments

26. SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation (publishing.service.gov.uk)

27. Public Health Scotland: COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview">Covid-19 Daily Dashboard (accessed 12 April 2022)

28. Before 5 January 2022, the case rate includes only positive laboratory confirmed PCR tests.

29. Public Health Scotland.

30. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): infection survey

31. Before 5 January 2022, the case rate includes only a positive laboratory confirmed PCR tests.

32. Public Health Scotland.

33. Public Health Scotland Covid-19 Statistical Report Dashboard

34. Scottish Government: Omicron variant

35. Public Health Scotland: COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview">Covid-19 Daily Dashboard (accessed 12 April 2022)

36. Public Health Scotland: COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview">Covid-19 Daily Dashboard (accessed 12 April 2022)

37. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Statistical Report (accessed 13 April 2022)

38. Results are taken from questions run on behalf of Scottish Government on the YouGov online omnibus survey. Question 'Coronavirus tests typically take two forms – Rapid 'Lateral Flow or LFD' tests (sometimes called Antigen Tests), which give a test result in 30 minutes and are usually self-administered, or PCR Tests mostly conducted at official Test Sites (but also available as a 'Home Kit) – processed by a laboratory, with results available within 48 hours. In both tests, a swab of nose and/or throat is needed. Which of the following applies to you in relation to testing for Covid-19 in the past week (i.e. since 8 March)?'

39. Question -Thinking about the last lateral flow/antigen test you did in the past week…Which of the following best describes you in relation to that test? (Base: 533 - All who have taken a Lateral Flow/antigen test in the last week)

40. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic

41. The sample is demographically and geographically representative of adults 18+ across Scotland, with circa 1000 responses each week fieldwork is conducted. YouGov apply weighting to the data to match the population profile to adjust for any over/under representations and to maximise consistency from wave to wave. Parameters used include age, gender, social class, region and level of education.

42. The sample is demographically representative of adults 18+ across Scotland, with circa 3000 responses over two alternating panels. This is modelled to represent the Scottish population.

43. This is based on the number of patients in beds at 8 AM the day prior to reporting, with the data extract taken at 8 AM on the day of reporting to allow 24 hours for test results to become available.

44. Public Health Scotland: COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview">Covid-19 Daily Dashboard (accessed 12 April 2022)

45. Public Health Scotland: COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview">Covid-19 Daily Dashboard (accessed 12 April 2022)

46. ICU includes combined ICU/HDU figures and both patients with length of stay 28 days or less and with length of stay more than 28 days. Please note that only patients with length of stay 28 days or less in ICU were recorded until 20 January 2021. From 20 January 2021 ICU short and long stay includes both ICU or combined ICU/HDU with length of stay 28 days or less and with length of stay more than 28 days.

47. Before 9 February 2022, patients were only included if they had a recent positive laboratory confirmed PCR test. Hospital and ICU occupancy includes reinfections from 7 March 2022 onwards.

48. The State of the Epidemic report incorporates data up to and including 11 April 2022, so any revisions since then will not be included in this report.

49. Public Health Scotland: COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview">Covid-19 Daily Dashboard (accessed 13 April 2022)

50. Public Health Scotland: COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview">Covid-19 Daily Dashboard (accessed 13 April 2022)

51. Covid-19 related admissions have been identified as the following: A patient's first positive test for Covid-19 up to 14 days prior to admission to hospital, on the day of their admission or during their stay in hospital. If a patient's first positive test is after their date of discharge from hospital, they are not included in the analysis. An admission is defined as a period of stay in a single hospital. If the patient has been transferred to another hospital during treatment, each transfer will create a new admission record.

52. Before 9 January 2022, hospital admissions were only included if the patient had a recent positive laboratory confirmed PCR test. ICU admissions rely on PCR testing only. Hospital admissions data in the chart now includes reinfections and has been updated to include this methodology retrospectively to the start of the pandemic.

53. Public Health Scotland: COVID-19 Statistical Report - 13 April 2022

54. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 statistical report - 30 March 2022

55. Public Health Scotland: COVID-19 Statistical Report - 13 April 2022

56. Public Health Scotland: COVID-19 Statistical Report - 13 April 2022

57. UK Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19) in the UK (accessed 12 April 2022)

58. NRS Scotland: Deaths involving coronavirus (Covid-19) in Scotland

59. NRS Scotland: Deaths involving coronavirus (Covid-19) in Scotland

60. NRS Scotland: Deaths involving coronavirus (Covid-19) in Scotland

61. Please note that due to unusual numbers of mortality in 2020, the excess deaths calculation for 2021 use the average from the years 2015 – 2019. Year 2022 uses data from 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2021 to calculate average 5-year period.

62. Please note that Covid-19 deaths are included in all cause deaths, and are counted towards all cause excess deaths. However, Covid-19 does not yet have a separate category for excess deaths calculation as excess deaths are compared against a 5 year average. The separate categories of causes of death do not sum to the total excess due to the omission of a Covid-19 category, and it would not make sense to use the number of COVID deaths in the previous 5 years as a baseline.

63. Deaths where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate.

64. UK Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19) in the UK (accessed 12 April 2022)

65. COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview">Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard | Tableau Public (accessed 12 April 2022)

66. Coronavirus (COVID-19) booster vaccination | The coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine (nhsinform.scot)

67. COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview">Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard | Tableau Public (accessed 12 April 2022)

68. Office For National Statistics: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, antibody data, UK

69. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): infection survey

70. COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report: week 14 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

71. COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report: week 14 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

72. University of Edinburgh: Severity of Omicron variant of concern and vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease

73. Imperial College Covid-19 response team: Report 50: Hospitalisation risk for Omicron cases in England

74. UK Health Security Agency: SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation