Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 14 April 2022

Summary

The positivity estimate from the Covid-19 Infection Survey (CIS) for Scotland continued to decrease in the most recent week to 9 April. Over the past two weeks to 12 April there has been an overall nationwide decline in wastewater Covid-19 levels; however, the most recent week saw a slight increase. Meanwhile, the weekly case rate (including reinfections) in Scotland has continued to decrease in the most recent week to 9 April. Omicron BA.2 continues to be the dominant variant in Scotland.

According to the CIS, the estimated percentage of people testing positive decreased across all ages in recent weeks. Similarly, case rates have decreased in all age groups compared to the previous week; the greatest decrease in case rates was 41% for those aged 0 to 19 years.

Covid-19 related daily hospital occupancy has started to decrease in the most recent week, after reaching the highest levels seen throughout the pandemic on 2 April. Combined ICU occupancy remains at similar levels in the most recent week compared to the week prior. Similarly, weekly numbers of Covid-19 admissions reached the highest levels seen throughout the pandemic in the week to 18 March, and there are early signs that the trend is now decreasing. There were 139 deaths where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate in the latest week, a slight decrease from the week before.

Key Points

• The UK Health Security Agency's (UKHSA) consensus estimate for R in Scotland as at 29 March is between 0.8 and 1.0. The lower and upper limit of the R value have both decreased since the last published figure.
• As at 29 March 2022, the UKHSA's consensus view was that the incidence of new daily infections in Scotland was between 348 and 1,032 per 100,000 people.
• The latest estimated growth rate for Scotland as at 29 March was between -4% and 0%. The upper and lower growth limits have both decreased since the previous week.
• As determined through the latest weekly ONS Covid-19 Infection Survey (CIS), in Scotland, the percentage of people living in private residential households testing positive for Covid-19 continued to decrease in the week ending 9 April 2022. In the latest week, the estimated percentage of people testing positive was 5.98% (95% credible interval: 5.35% to 6.62%)^[2], equating to around 1 in 17 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 19 to 1 in 15).
• Overall, there has been a decline in nationwide wastewater SARS-CoV-2 RNA over the last two weeks. The week ending on 12 April saw levels of around 240 million gene copies per person per day (Mgc/p/d), a decrease from 296 Mgc/p/d two weeks ago (week ending 29 March). However, there has been a slight rise in SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels in the last week of data available.
• The sub-lineage Omicron BA.2 is the dominant variant in Scotland. Of the new cases in Scotland that were notified on 11 April from UK Government laboratories, 97.9% were S gene positive, which is used as a reasonable proxy for tracking Omicron BA.2. By comparison, according to the Covid-19 Infection Survey, the percentage of people testing positive that are compatible with BA.2 has decreased in Scotland in the week to the 9 April 2022. The survey estimated that 5.31% (95% credible interval: 4.70% to 5.96%) of the private residential population would have tested positive with a Covid-19 infection compatible with BA.2 on 6 April.
• By specimen date, the seven-day combined PCR and LFD case rate (including reinfections) decreased by 25% in Scotland in the week leading up to 9 April (728 cases per 100,000) compared to one week previously (973 cases per 100,000 on 2 April). This follows a period of sharply increasing case rates from late February to mid-March.
• The week leading up to 9 April saw decreasing case rates in all age groups compared to the week ending 2 April. In the most recent week, the decrease ranged from 13% for those aged 70 to 79, to 41% for those aged 19 or younger.
• In the week to 8 April, there were 393 reported cases among care home residents, which is a decrease of 18% from the previous week ending 1 April (482 cases).
• The proportion of reinfections among total weekly cases has increased in the most recent week to 9 April to 10.7% of all cases, which is the highest level of reinfections seen in the pandemic.
• In the week to and including 11 April, Covid-19 hospital occupancy decreased by 11% compared to the previous week ending 4 April, after the highest hospital occupancy number throughout the pandemic was reported on 2 April 2022 (2,405). Combined ICU occupancy remains at similar levels in the week to 11 April compared to the previous week ending 4 April.
• Covid-19 admissions to hospital in the week to 26 March decreased by 5% compared to the previous week ending 19 March, after reaching the highest levels seen throughout the pandemic on 18 March 2022 (1,595 patients). Covid-19 ICU admissions have increased by 31% in the week to 29 March compared to the previous week ending 22 March. There are a large number of daily revisions to admissions data for the latest two weeks, so the week-on-week comparisons are lagged by two weeks.
• According to new analysis from Public Health Scotland, 60% of Covid-19 related hospital admissions in December 2021 were 'because of' Covid-19, rather than admissions for other reasons where Covid-19 was found through testing. This is a decrease from earlier in the year. The analysis also found that the average length of stay after a Covid-19 admission decreased from September 2021 to December 2021.
• The overall number of Covid-19 deaths has decreased by 19%, or 33 deaths, to a total of 139 deaths in the week leading up to 10 April, compared to 172 in the week leading up to 3 April.
• In the week ending 10 April, the total number of deaths registered in Scotland was 1,222. This was 11% above the five-year average for this week.
• In the week leading up to 9 April 2022, Shetland Islands had the highest combined PCR and LFD weekly case rate by specimen date, reporting 1,509 cases per 100,000 population. Orkney Islands had the lowest weekly combined LFD and PCR case rate in the same time period, reporting 540 cases per 100,000.

Method

This report brings together a wide range of publicly available figures from a range of data sources. These include publications by Scottish Government, Public Heath Scotland, National Records of Scotland and Office for National Statistics along with scientific publications and SAGE and UKHSA summaries where appropriate to summarise the state of the epidemic in Scotland in a given week. We also provide information on public attitudes to the virus from weekly YouGov polling surveys.