Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 14 January 2022
This report brings together the different sources of evidence and data about the Covid epidemic to summarise the current situation, why we are at that place, and what is likely to happen next.
Footnotes
1 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
2 The R value and growth rate - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
3 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
4 Using data to 10 January 2022.
5 No R value was estimated for the week beginning 27 December 2021 as publications were paused over the festive period.
6 The R value and growth rate - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
7 Using data to 10th January 2022.
8 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
9 Using data to 10th January 2022.
10 Ibid.
11 Coronavirus (COVID-19): infection survey - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
12 ibid
13 The reporting date is when the result of the test has been authorised and released to Public Health Scotland by NHS Scotland and UK Government Regional Testing Laboratories.
14 Scottish Government: https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/ (week on week comparison may be affected by the festive period and the data flow issue.)
15 Public Health Scotland COVID-19 statistical report
16 The specimen date is the date the sample was collected from the patient.
17 Public Health Scotland Covid-19 dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview
18 Public Health Scotland COVID-19 statistical report
19 Public Health Scotland: PHS COVID-19 Education report (shinyapps.io)
20 Source: Public Health Scotland
21 UK Government: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
22 UK Government: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
23 https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
25 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
26 Coronavirus (COVID-19): trends in daily data - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
27 ICU or combined ICU/HDU (with length of stay 28 days or less and with length of stay more than 28 days). Please note that only patients with length of stay 28 days or less in ICU were recorded until 20 January 2021. From 20 January 2021 ICU short and long stay includes both ICU or combined ICU/HDU with length of stay 28 days or less and with length of stay more than 28 days.
28 Public Health Scotland dashboard: COVID-19 Daily Dashboard - PHS COVID-19 | Tableau Public
30 Covid-19 related admissions have been identified as the following: A patient’s first positive test for COVID-19 up to 14 days prior to admission to hospital, on the day of their admission or during their stay in hospital. If a patient’s first positive test is after their date of discharge from hospital, they are not included in the analysis. An admission is defined as a period of stay in a single hospital. If the patient has been transferred to another hospital during treatment, each transfer will create a new admission record.
31 Public Health Scotland dashboard: COVID-19 Daily Dashboard - PHS COVID-19 | Tableau Public
32 Public Health Scotland COVID-19 statistical report
33 Ibid.
34 This relates to an age-standardised rate of hospital admissions per 100,000. Please note that these statistics do not differentiate between individuals in hospital with COVID-19 illness requiring hospitalisation compared to those in hospital for other reasons (e.g. routine operations) for whom COVID-19 was identified incidentally through testing but they are not requiring hospitalisation because of their COVID-19 symptoms.
35 Public Health Scotland COVID-19 statistical report
36 Additionally, hospitalisation data from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland is updated retrospectively if errors come to light. Data from England is not revised retrospectively, but instead is corrected in the following day's data update (Metrics documentation | Coronavirus in the UK (data.gov.uk))
37 UK Government: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare (accessed 12 January 2022)
39 Public Health Scotland COVID-19 statistical report
40 Public Health Scotland COVID-19 statistical report
41 Ibid.
42 Public Health Scotland Covid-19 dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview
43 Ibid.
44 https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.47.2101021
45 95% confidence intervals for Scotland: 97.1% to 98.2%
49 COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 2 (publishing.service.gov.uk)
50 SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation (publishing.service.gov.uk)
51 Ibid.
52 COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 2 (publishing.service.gov.uk)
54 2021-12-22-COVID19-Report-50.pdf (imperial.ac.uk)
55 SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation (publishing.service.gov.uk)
56 Public Health Scotland Covid dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview
57 Using data to 10 January 2022
58 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
59 Results are taken from questions run on behalf of Scottish Government on the YouGov online omnibus survey. The sample is demographically and geographically representative of adults 18+ across Scotland, with c. 1000 responses each week. Fieldwork took place on 4-5 January with a total sample size of 1012 adults. ‘Complete’ or ‘almost complete’ compliance refers to respondents who rated themselves 6 or 7 on a scale of 1-7 for the question: Thinking about ALL of the guidance on what to do and what not to do during the Coronavirus pandemic (including distancing, protection measures and all restrictions).On a scale of 1-7, where 1 is 'Not at all' and 7 is 'Completely', to what extent do you feel you are following the regulations and guidance?
60 Office for National Statistics: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/2december2021
61 Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
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