Coronavirus (COVID-19) state of the epidemic 17 December 2021
This report brings together the different sources of evidence and data about the Covid epidemic to summarise the current situation, why we are at that place, and what is likely to happen next.
Footnotes
1. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
2. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
3. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
4. Scottish Government: https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
(week on week comparison may be affected by data flow issue.)
5. Coronavirus (COVID-19): additional data and information - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
6. Public Health Scotland Covid-19 dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview
7. Public Health Scotland COVID-19 statistical report
8. Source: Public Health Scotland
9. Public Health Scotland: PHS COVID-19 Education report (shinyapps.io)
11. Coronavirus (COVID-19): additional data and information - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
12. Please note this chart combines data published by PHS up to 13 December (Public Health Scotland COVID-19 statistical report) and additional ad hoc data releases from Scottish Government (Coronavirus (COVID-19): additional data and information - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)). There has been no published for data on 15 December. The next release of the PHS COVID-19 statistical report on 22 December 2021 will provide a full update to the time series.
13. Public Health Scotland COVID-19 & Winter Statistical Report
14. Public Health Scotland COVID-19 statistical report
15. UK case definitions. Confirmed case: COVID-19 variant of concern Omicron by sequencing or genotyping. Highly Probable: COVID 19 PCR positive, S Gene Target Failure (dropout) plus travel history from RSA, Botswana, Namibia, Nigeria, Eswatini, Lesotho, Zimbabwe, Angola, Zambia, Malawi, and Mozambique with specimen dates from 01 Nov 21 as confirmed by case interview (cases that are confirmed as another strain are excluded) Or COVID PCR/LFD positive contact of a confirmed case. Possible case under investigation: COVID 19 PCR positive plus S Gene Target Failure (dropout) and specimen dates from 01 Nov 21
16. The modelling in this report uses S-gene test data to 12 December only.
17. Data for 9-12 December are lagged due to specimen processing times and data will represent an undercount
18. Public Health Scotland COVID-19 statistical report
19. https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-additional-data-and-information/
20. Ibid.
21. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
22. Public Health Scotland COVID-19 & Winter Statistical Report
23. https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
24. Public Health Scotland COVID-19 statistical report
25. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
26. ibid
27. Figures for test positivity rate in the last 7 days are available from 24 August 2020. Gaps in the line chart represent missing data for the periods 28 July 2021 to 2 August 2021 and 16 September 2021
28. Public Health Scotland dashboard: COVID-19 Daily Dashboard - PHS COVID-19 | Tableau Public.
29. Scottish Government: https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
30. ibid
31. ICU or combined ICU/HDU (with length of stay 28 days or less and with length of stay more than 28 days). Please note that only patients with length of stay 28 days or less in ICU were recorded until 20 January 2021. From 20 January 2021 ICU short and long stay includes both ICU or combined ICU/HDU with length of stay 28 days or less and with length of stay more than 28 days.
32. Public Health Scotland COVID-19 statistical report
34. ibid
35. ibid
36. Public Health Scotland Covid-19 dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview
37. Public Health Scotland Covid-19 dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview
38. Public Health Scotland Covid dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview
39. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
40. ibid
41. UK Government: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
42. UK Government: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
43. Office for National Statistics: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
44. Office for National Statistics: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, antibody and vaccination data, UK - Office for National Statistics
45. Office for National Statistics: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/2december2021
48. COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 50 (publishing.service.gov.uk)
49. BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 Vaccine Effectiveness against Death from the Delta Variant | NEJM
50. COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 46 (publishing.service.gov.uk)
51. JCVI statement, September 2021: COVID-19 booster vaccine programme for winter 2021 to 2022 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
52. JCVI advice on the UK vaccine response to the Omicron variant - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
53. COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 50 (publishing.service.gov.uk)
54. https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.47.2101021
55. Results are taken from questions run on behalf of Scottish Government on the YouGov online omnibus survey. The sample is demographically and geographically representative of adults 18+ across Scotland, with c. 1000 responses each week. Fieldwork took place on 14-15 December with a total sample size of 1022 adults. 'Complete' or 'almost complete' compliance refers to respondents who rated themselves 6 or 7 on a scale of 1-7 for the question:Thinking about ALL of the guidance on what to do and what not to do during the Coronavirus pandemic (including distancing, protection measures and all restrictions).On a scale of 1-7, where 1 is 'Not at all' and 7 is 'Completely', to what extent do you feel you are following the regulations and guidance?
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