Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 18 February 2022

Summary

The daily positivity estimate from the Covid-19 Infection Survey for Scotland has fluctuated in recent weeks, and may be showing early signs of levelling off in the most recent week to 13 February, although the trend is (statistically) uncertain. By comparison, there remains a high weekly case rate compared to previous phases of the pandemic in Scotland, with a slight decrease in the latest two weeks. Nationwide, wastewater (WW) Covid-19 levels have shown an upturn in the week ending on 14 February, compared to the previous week, and this moderate increase in wastewater viral levels is observed across many of the local authorities in Scotland.

Weekly PCR or LFD case rates by specimen date across Scotland continue to slightly decrease with some difference between age groups. In the most recent week, younger age groups have seen decreasing case rates while there has been a slight increase in case rates for those aged 50 or over compared to the previous week. The majority of local authorities saw a decrease in the weekly PCR or LFD case rate by specimen date in the most recent week, but 14 local authorities saw an increase.

Admissions to hospital have continued to decrease in the most recent week since peaking in early January 2022, and admissions to ICU have also decreased in the most recent week. Covid-19 deaths have decreased overall in the week leading up to 13 February. This decrease was seen in older age groups, and deaths remained at low levels for the younger age groups.

Key Points

• The UK Health Security Agency's (UKHSA) consensus estimate for R in Scotland as at 1 February is between 0.8 and 1.0. The lower limit and upper limit of the R value have remained unchanged since the last published figure.
• As at 1 February 2022, the UKHSA's consensus view was that the incidence of new daily infections in Scotland was between 204 and 377 per 100,000 people.
• The latest growth rate for Scotland as at 1 February was between -3% and 1%. The upper and lower limits have increased since the last published figure.
• As determined through the latest weekly ONS infection survey, the percentage of people testing positive for Covid-19 increased in the two weeks up to 13 February 2022, but the trend was (statistically) uncertain in the most recent week. It is estimated that around 1 in 25 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 25 to 1 in 20) in Scotland had Covid-19 at any given time in the week ending 13 February 2022
• Nationwide, wastewater Covid-19 levels have shown an upturn, with the week ending on 14 February recording levels of 88 million gene copies per person per day (Mgc/p/d), up from 51 Mgc/p/d the previous week (ending 7 February). This moderate increase in wastewater viral levels is observed across many of the local authorities in Scotland.
• By specimen date, the seven-day combined PCR and LFD case rate continued to decrease in Scotland in the week leading up to 12 February. There were 794 weekly combined PCR and LFD cases per 100,000 population in the week to 12 February, which is a slight 4% decrease the previous week. This remains a high case rate compared to previous phases of the pandemic in Scotland.
• Data from the PHS Daily Dashboard shows that as of 12 February, the highest combined PCR and LFD weekly case rates by specimen date per 100,000 were observed amongst those aged 20 to 39, followed by those aged 40 to 49, 19 and younger, and 50 to 59. The lowest case rates were seen among those aged 60 to 69, 70 to 79, and 80 or older.
• The total combined PCR and LFD weekly case rates per 100,000 by specimen date among children and young adults (aged 19 or younger) in the week leading up to 12 February have decreased for all age groups compared to the previous week (ending 5 February). The exception is those aged 16 to 17, where case rates remain similar to the previous week.
• In the week to and including 16 February, Covid-19 hospital occupancy showed a decrease of 2% compared to the previous week ending 9 February, while combined ICU occupancy has decreased by 8 patients in the week to 16 February compared to the previous week ending 9 February.
• Admissions to hospital in the week to 12 February decreased by 18% compared to the previous week ending 5 February, while ICU admissions have decreased by 32% in the week to 15 February compared to the previous week ending 8 February.
• While remaining at a high level, average hospital admissions related to Covid-19 in children and young adults have decreased among those aged younger than 12 in the three weeks leading up to 9 February compared to the previous three-week period leading up to 2 February, and remained at similar levels for those aged between 12 and 21 in the same period. These figures refer both to young patients in hospital because of Covid-19 and with Covid-19, and are linked to PCR cases only.
• The overall number of Covid-19 deaths has continued to decrease in the week leading up to 13 February. Compared to the previous week ending 6 February, the number of deaths decreased by 33%, or 39 deaths, to a total of 79 deaths in the week leading up to 13 February.
• In the week leading up to 12 February 2022, Shetland Islands had the highest combined PCR and LFD weekly case rate by specimen date, reporting 2,147 cases per 100,000 population. Na h-Eileanan Siar had the lowest weekly combined LFD and PCR case rate in the same time period, reporting 460 cases per 100,000.

Method

This report brings together a wide range of publically available figures from a range of data sources. These include publications by Scottish Government, Public Heath Scotland, National Records of Scotland and Office for National Statistics along with scientific publications and SAGE and UKHSA summaries where appropriate to summarise the state of the epidemic in Scotland in a given week. We also provide information on public attitudes to the virus from weekly YouGov polling surveys.