Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 18 February 2022
This report brings together the different sources of evidence and data about the Covid epidemic to summarise the current situation, why we are at that place, and what is likely to happen next.
Footnotes
1. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): state of the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
2. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
3. Using data to 14 February 2022.
4. No R value was published for the week beginning 27 December 2021 as publications were paused over the festive period. The most recent data point for R is dated 16 February 2022, reflecting the R value as of 1 February 2022.
5. Using data to 14 February 2022.
6. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
7. Using data to 14 February 2022.
8. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
9. A credible interval gives an indication of the uncertainty of an estimate from data analysis based on a sample population. 95% credible intervals are calculated so that there is a 95% probability of the true value lying in the interval.
10. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): infection survey - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
11. The ratios presented are rounded to the nearest 100 if over 1,000, to the nearest 10 if under 1,000, to the nearest 5 if under 100 and to 1 if under 20. This may result in credible intervals that appear to be similar to the estimated average ratio.
12. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): infection survey - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
13. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
14. Ibid.
15. Ibid.
16. The reporting date is when the result of the test is authorised and released to Public Health Scotland by NHS Scotland and UK Government Regional Testing Laboratories.
17. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): trends in daily data
18. Ibid.
19. The specimen date is the date the sample was collected from the patient.
20. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard
21. Before 5 January 2022, the case rate includes only positive laboratory confirmed PCR tests.
22. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard
23. Ibid.
24. Before 5 January 2022, the case rate includes only a positive laboratory confirmed PCR tests.
25. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): daily data for Scotland
26. Public Health Scotland: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
27. The sample is demographically and geographically representative of adults 18+ across Scotland, with circa 1000 responses each week fieldwork is conducted. YouGov apply weighting to the data to match the population profile to adjust for any over/under representations and to maximise consistency from wave to wave. Parameters used include age, gender, social class, region and level of education.
28. The sample is demographically representative of adults 18+ across Scotland, with circa 3000 responses over two alternating panels. This is modelled to represent the Scottish population.
29. Public Health Scotland: Coronavirus (Covid-19): Trends in Daily Data
30. ICU includes combined ICU/HDU figures and both patients with length of stay 28 days or less and with length of stay more than 28 days. Please note that only patients with length of stay 28 days or less in ICU were recorded until 20 January 2021. From 20 January 2021 ICU short and long stay includes both ICU or combined ICU/HDU with length of stay 28 days or less and with length of stay more than 28 days.
31. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard
32. Ibid.
33. Data on hospital admissions goes up to 12 February 2022 and data for admissions to ICU up to 15 February 2022.
34. Covid-19 related admissions have been identified as the following: A patient's first positive test for COVID-19 up to 14 days prior to admission to hospital, on the day of their admission or during their stay in hospital. If a patient's first positive test is after their date of discharge from hospital, they are not included in the analysis. An admission is defined as a period of stay in a single hospital. If the patient has been transferred to another hospital during treatment, each transfer will create a new admission record.
35. Before 9 January 2022, hospital admissions were only included if the patient had a recent positive laboratory confirmed PCR test. This still applies to ICU admissions.
36. Public Health Scotland: PHS COVID-19 Education Report
37. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 statistical report - 16 February 2022
38. UK Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19) in the UK (accessed 16 February 2022)
39. Ibid.
40. NRS Scotland: Deaths involving coronavirus (Covid-19) in Scotland
41. Ibid.
42. NRS Scotland: Deaths involving coronavirus (Covid-19) in Scotland
43. Deaths within 28 days of positive test.
44. UK Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19) in the UK (accessed 16 February 2022)
45. UK Government: Covid-19 variants identified in the UK
46. Investigation of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: variant risk assessments - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
48. Covid-19 vaccine weekly surveillance reports (weeks 39 to 6, 2021 to 2022) - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) – week 6
49. Covid-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 6 (publishing.service.gov.uk)
50. University of Edinburgh: Severity of Omicron variant of concern and vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease
51. Imperial College Covid-19 response team: Report 50: Hospitalisation risk for Omicron cases in England
52. UK Health Security Agency: SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation
53. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard
54. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
55. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
56. Ibid.
57. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
58. Following the announcement removing the need for a confirmatory PCR test in some cases combined PCR and LFD reported date data has been used from 6th January.
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