Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 18 March 2022

Situation by Local Authority within Scotland

From March 1, cases data includes reinfections (where a person has a positive test 90 days or more since a last positive test). For cases by specimen date, historical cases have been retrospectively updated to include reinfections from the start of the pandemic.

Please note that Public Health Scotland experienced technical issues with reporting on 16 March, which means that cases by specimen date from the most recent days are likely to be under reported.

In the week leading up to 13 March 2022, Na h-Eileanan Siar had the highest combined PCR and LFD weekly case rate by specimen date, reporting 2,664 cases per 100,000 population. Dundee City had the lowest weekly combined LFD and PCR case rate in the same time period, reporting 1,110 cases per 100,000. The total combined LFD and PCR weekly case rates by specimen date per 100,000 had increased in 31 local authorities in the week leading up to 13 March compared with the weekly case rate leading up to 5 March, while one local authority (Orkney Islands) saw a decrease in the same period (Figure 13)^[67].

Please note that the following local authority hotspot modelling uses data to 14 March 2022 from several academic groups to give an indication of whether a local authority is likely to experience high levels of Covid-19. The local authority modelling has not been compiled via UKHSA into a consensus this week and is based on one modelling group. In less populated regions in which case numbers are small, there is a greater variation in model estimates, and hence increased uncertainty. This has led to Na h-Eileanan Siar, Orkney Islands and Shetland Islands not being included this week. The modelled weekly case rate below is not directly comparable to the weekly case rate reported in the section and figure above.

Modelled rates of positive tests per 100,000 indicate that for the week commencing 27 March, all 29 of the local authorities included are expected to exceed 100 cases per 100,000 with at least 75% probability. The same 29 local authorities are also expected to exceed 1,000 cases per 100,000, with at least 75% probability.

21 out of the 29 local authorities are expected to exceed 2,000 cases per 100,000, with at least 75% probability. The exceptions are Aberdeenshire, Angus, Argyll and Bute, Dundee, East Dunbartonshire, East Renfrewshire, Inverclyde and Moray.

One local authority (North Ayrshire) is expected to exceed 3,500 cases per 100,000 with at least 75% probability^[68].