Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 21 January 2022

This report brings together the different sources of evidence and data about the Covid epidemic to summarise the current situation, why we are at that place, and what is likely to happen next.


Footnotes

1 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

2 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

3 Using data to 17 January 2022.

4 No R value was published for the week beginning 27 December 2021 as publications were paused over the festive period.

5 Using data to 17 January 2022.

6 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

7 Using data to 17 January 2022.

8 Coronavirus (COVID-19): infection survey - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

9 Coronavirus (COVID-19): infection survey - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

10 The reporting date is when the result of the test has been authorised and released to Public Health Scotland by NHS Scotland and UK Government Regional Testing Laboratories.

11 Experimental statistics

12 Scottish Government: https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/ (week on week comparison may be affected by the festive period and the data flow issue.)

13 Public Health Scotland COVID-19 statistical report

14 These figures are produced by Public Health Scotland as “experimental statistics” and may be subject to future revision as the new method for counting combined PCR and LFD tests evolves.

15 The specimen date is the date the sample was collected from the patient.

16 Public Health Scotland Covid-19 dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

17 Public Health Scotland: PHS COVID-19 Education report (shinyapps.io)

18 Source: Public Health Scotland

19 If a nation does not report cases on a particular day, this might affect the 7-day average by reporting date. Cases by specimen date are not affected in such way.

20 Case comparisons across the four nations should be made with caution due to definitional differences.

21 UK Government: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

22 Case comparisons across the four nations should be made with caution due to definitional differences.

23 UK Government: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

24 https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

25 Source: Public Health Scotland

26 COVID-19 statistical report - 7 January 2022 - COVID-19 statistical report - Publications - Public Health Scotland

27 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

28 Coronavirus (COVID-19): trends in daily data - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

29 ICU or combined ICU/HDU (with length of stay 28 days or less and with length of stay more than 28 days). Please note that only patients with length of stay 28 days or less in ICU were recorded until 20 January 2021. From 20 January 2021 ICU short and long stay includes both ICU or combined ICU/HDU with length of stay 28 days or less and with length of stay more than 28 days.

30 Public Health Scotland dashboard: COVID-19 Daily Dashboard - PHS COVID-19 | Tableau Public

31 COVID-19 Education Surveillance dashboard - Enhanced surveillance of COVID-19 in education settings - COVID-19 data and intelligence - COVID-19 - Our areas of work - Public Health Scotland

32 Covid-19 related admissions have been identified as the following: A patient’s first positive test for COVID-19 up to 14 days prior to admission to hospital, on the day of their admission or during their stay in hospital. If a patient’s first positive test is after their date of discharge from hospital, they are not included in the analysis. An admission is defined as a period of stay in a single hospital. If the patient has been transferred to another hospital during treatment, each transfer will create a new admission record.

33 Public Health Scotland dashboard: COVID-19 Daily Dashboard - PHS COVID-19 | Tableau Public

34 Public Health Scotland COVID-19 statistical report

35 This relates to an age-standardised rate of hospital admissions per 100,000. Please note that these statistics do not differentiate between individuals in hospital with COVID-19 illness requiring hospitalisation compared to those in hospital for other reasons (e.g. routine operations) for whom COVID-19 was identified incidentally through testing but they are not requiring hospitalisation because of their COVID-19 symptoms.

36 NHS Board Dumfries and Galloway 30 December 2021 to 9 January 2022, NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde 1 to 4 January 2022, NHS Grampian 30 December 2021 to 11 January 2022.

37 Public Health Scotland COVID-19 statistical report

38 UK Government: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare (accessed 12 January 2022)

39 UK Summary | Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK (data.gov.uk)

40 Ibid.

41 NRS Scotland: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-publications/weekly-and-monthly-data-on-births-and-deaths/deaths-involving-coronavirus-covid-19-in-scotland

42 Public Health Scotland COVID-19 statistical report

43 Ibid.

44 Public Health Scotland Covid-19 dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

45 Coronavirus (COVID-19) booster vaccination | The coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine (nhsinform.scot)

46 Ibid.

47 95% confidence intervals for Scotland: 97.1% to 98.2%

48 Coronavirus (COVID-19): ONS Infection Survey – antibody data for Scotland – 23 December 2021 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

49 Coronavirus (COVID-19): ONS Infection Survey – antibody data for Scotland – 23 December 2021 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

50 12 January 2022 Risk assessment for SARS-CoV-2 variant: Omicron VOC-21NOV-01 (B.1.1.529) (publishing.service.gov.uk)

51 COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 3 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

52 SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation- Technical briefing 34 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

53 SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation- Technical briefing 34 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

54 COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 3 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

55 Severity of Omicron variant of concern and vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease | The University of Edinburgh

56 2021-12-22-COVID19-Report-50.pdf (imperial.ac.uk)

57 SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation (publishing.service.gov.uk)

58 Public Health Scotland Covid dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

59 Using data to 17 January 2022

60 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

61 Public Health Scotland Covid dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

62 Results are taken from questions run on behalf of Scottish Government on the YouGov online omnibus survey. The sample is demographically and geographically representative of adults 18+ across Scotland, with c. 1000 responses each week. Fieldwork took place on 18-19 January with a total sample size of 1005 adults. ‘Complete’ or ‘almost complete’ compliance refers to respondents who rated themselves 6 or 7 on a scale of 1-7 for the question: “Thinking about ALL of the guidance on what to do and what not to do during the Coronavirus pandemic (including distancing, protection measures and all restrictions). On a scale of 1-7, where 1 is 'Not at all' and 7 is 'Completely', to what extent do you feel you are following the regulations and guidance?”

63 Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

64 Ibid.

65 Office for National Statistics: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/2december2021

66 Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

Contact

Email: modellingcoronavirus@gov.scot

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