We use cookies to collect anonymous data to help us improve your site browsing experience.

Click 'Accept all cookies' to agree to all cookies that collect anonymous data. To only allow the cookies that make the site work, click 'Use essential cookies only.' Visit 'Set cookie preferences' to control specific cookies.

Set cookie preferences

Your cookie preferences have been saved. You can change your cookie settings at any time.

Publication - Research and analysis

Coronavirus (COVID-19) state of the epidemic 25 February 2022

Published
25 February 2022
Directorate
Constitution Directorate
Topic
Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Scotland
ISBN
9781804351369

This report brings together the different sources of evidence and data about the Covid epidemic to summarise the current situation, why we are at that place, and what is likely to happen next.

View supporting documents Supporting documents

Situation by Local Authority within Scotland

In the week leading up to 19 February 2022, Shetland Islands had the highest combined PCR and LFD weekly case rate by specimen date, reporting 2,121 cases per 100,000 population, followed by Orkney at 1,513 weekly cases per 100,000. Dumfries and Galloway had the lowest weekly combined LFD and PCR case rate in the same time period, reporting 514 cases per 100,000. The total combined LFD and PCR weekly case rates by specimen date per 100,000 had increased in 21 local authorities in the week leading up to 19 February 2022, compared with the weekly case rate leading up to 12 February, while 11 local authorities saw a decrease in the same period (Figure 11)[64].

Figure 11: Weekly total LFD or PCR case rates per 100,000 people in Local Authorities across Scotland on 19 February 2022 by specimen date.
One colour coded map showing positive LFD and PCR weekly cases per 100,000 people by specimen date in each local authority in Scotland on 19 February 2022. The map ranges from grey for under 100 weekly cases per 100,000, through very light blue for 100-500, blue for 500-1,000, darker blue for 1,000-1,500, and very dark blue for over 1,500 weekly cases per 100,000 people.

Please note that the following local authority hotspot modelling uses data to 21 February 2022 from several academic groups to give an indication of whether a local authority is likely to experience high levels of Covid-19. This has been compiled via UKHSA into a consensus. The modelled weekly case rate below is not directly comparable to the weekly case rate reported in the section and figure above.

The local authority modelling has not been compiled via UKHSA into a consensus this week and is based on one modelling group due to issues with some of the models converging. Some of the models contributing to this analysis are informed by both PCR and LFD positive tests, while others are currently informed by PCR only.

Modelled rates of positive tests per 100,000 indicate that for the week commencing 6 March, all 32 local authorities are expected to exceed 50 cases per 100,000 with at least 75% probability. All 32 local authorities are also expected to exceed 100 cases per 100,000, with at least 75% probability.

Twenty-six out of 32 local authorities are expected to exceed 300 cases per 100,000, with at least 75% probability. The exceptions are Dumfries & Galloway, East Ayrshire, Na h-Eileanan Siar, North Ayrshire, Scottish Borders and South Ayrshire.

Five local authorities are expected to exceed 500 cases per 100,000, with at least 75% probability. These are Aberdeenshire, Angus, Highlands, Orkney Islands and Shetland Islands[65].

Contact

Email: modellingcoronavirus@gov.scot

Back to top