Coronavirus (COVID-19) state of the epidemic 25 March 2022

Summary

The daily positivity estimate from the Covid-19 Infection Survey for Scotland continued to increase in the most recent week, reaching the highest estimated percentage of people testing positive since the survey began reporting for Scotland in October 2020. After sharply increasing case rates and Wastewater Covid-19 RNA levels in recent weeks, wastewater Covid-19 RNA levels have continued to increase, but at a slower rate. Meanwhile, the weekly case rate (including reinfections) in Scotland has decreased slightly in the most recent week. However, it is too early to say if this is a sustained trend. The prevalence of the dominant variant Omicron BA.2 in Scotland has continued to increase in the most recent week.

The Covid-19 Infection Survey estimates that Covid-19 positivity levels are rising among older age groups in recent weeks. For context, case rates also continued to increase among older age groups in the week to 20 March, but there are early signs that the rapid increase seen in recent weeks may be slowing down.

Covid-19 related daily hospital occupancy has continued to increase in the most recent week, reaching the highest levels seen throughout the pandemic. Combined ICU occupancy has decreased in the most recent week, but low numbers in ICU occupancy mean that the data is sensitive to small changes. Weekly average hospital admissions have increased in the past four weeks, however, caution must be advised when interpreting the latest data as we are currently seeing a large number of daily revisions. Those aged 60 or older continue to represent the majority of hospital admissions, but the average number of hospital admissions for children and young people has reached its highest levels so far in the pandemic. The weekly number of Covid-19 deaths has remained unchanged since last week, with the majority of deaths occurring in those aged 65 and over.

Key Points

• The UK Health Security Agency's (UKHSA) consensus estimate for R in Scotland as at 8 March is between 1.0 and 1.3. The lower and upper limit of the R value have remained unchanged since the last published figure.
• The latest growth rate for Scotland as at 8 March was between 1% and 4%. The upper and lower growth limits have increased since the previous week.
• As determined through the latest weekly ONS Covid-19 Infection Survey (CIS), in Scotland, the percentage of people living in private residential households testing positive for Covid-19 continued to increase in the week 14 to 20 March 2022 to 9.00% (95% credible interval: 8.28% to 9.73%)^[2], equating to around 1 in 11 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 12 to 1 in 10). In the latest three weeks of the survey, the estimates of positivity have surpassed the previous peak from early January 2022 to be the highest estimates since the survey began reporting for Scotland in October 2020.
• Nationwide, wastewater Covid-19 levels have continued to increase in the week ending 22 March, however, the rate of increase appears to have slowed down. The week ending on 22 March saw levels of around 212 million gene copies per person per day (Mgc/p/d), an increase of only 3% from 205 Mgc/p/d the week ending 15 March.
• The sublineage Omicron BA.2 is now the dominant variant in Scotland, and its incidence is increasing. The Covid-19 Infection Survey estimated that 7.05% (95% credible interval: 6.40% to 7.73%) of the private residential population would have tested positive with a Covid-19 infection compatible with BA.2 on 17 March. Of the new cases in Scotland that were notified on 18 March from UKGov laboratories, 90.1% were S gene positive, which is used as a reasonable proxy for tracking Omicron BA.2.
• By specimen date, the seven-day combined PCR and LFD case rate (including reinfections) has decreased slightly in the most recent week. There were 1,534 weekly combined PCR and LFD cases per 100,000 population in the week to 20 March, which is a slight 4% decrease from 1,591 weekly cases per 100,000 on 13 March.
• The week leading up to 20 March saw decreasing case rates in all age groups younger than 50 compared to the week ending 13 March. Case rates among older age groups have been increasing since mid-February, and the most recent week continued to see a further increase for those aged 50 and older but there are early signs that the rapid increase seen in recent weeks may be slowing down.
• In the week to 20 March, there were 786 reported cases among care home residents, which is at a similar level to the previous week ending 13 March (782 cases). This is lower than previous peak of 833 weekly cases in the week to 9 January 2022, but higher than the peak of 641 weekly cases in the week to 10 January 2021.
• The proportion of reinfections among total weekly cases has increased in the most recent week to 20 March to 10.0% of cases, which is the highest level of reinfections seen in the pandemic.
• In the week to 23 March, daily Covid-19 hospital occupancy continued to increase to the highest level reported throughout the pandemic. NHS boards reported 2,257 patients in hospital or in short stay ICU on 23 March, a 13% increase compared to the previous week. Combined ICU occupancy has decreased by 9 patients on 23 March compared to a week previously, to a total of 32 patients.
• There has been an increasing trend in Covid-19 admissions to hospital over the past month. The latest data shows that there were 1,341 admissions to hospital for people with confirmed Covid-19 in the week to 19 March which is a 41% increase from four weeks prior (week to 19 February). There has been a fluctuating trend in Covid-19 admissions to ICU over the past month. There are a large number of daily revisions to admissions data, so the number of admissions for the latest week is likely to change.
• According to data from the PHS Education Dashboard, average hospital admissions related to Covid-19 in children and young adults have continued to increase in the three-week period to 16 March, and have reached the highest levels seen in the pandemic, at 163 average weekly admissions.
• The overall number of Covid-19 deaths has remained unchanged in the week leading up to 20 March compared to the week leading up to 13 March, at a total of 118 deaths.
• In the week leading up to 20 March 2022, Na h-Eileanan Siar had the highest combined PCR and LFD weekly case rate by specimen date, reporting 3,079 cases per 100,000 population. Orkney Islands had the lowest weekly combined LFD and PCR case rate in the same time period, reporting 902 cases per 100,000.

Method

This report brings together a wide range of publicly available figures from a range of data sources. These include publications by Scottish Government, Public Heath Scotland, National Records of Scotland and Office for National Statistics along with scientific publications and SAGE and UKHSA summaries where appropriate to summarise the state of the epidemic in Scotland in a given week. We also provide information on public attitudes to the virus from weekly YouGov polling surveys.