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Publication - Research and analysis

Coronavirus (COVID-19) state of the epidemic 25 March 2022

Published
25 March 2022
From
Director-General Health and Social Care
Directorate
Constitution Directorate
Topic
Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Scotland
ISBN
9781804352915

This report brings together the different sources of evidence and data about the Covid epidemic to summarise the current situation, why we are at that place, and what is likely to happen next.

View supporting documents Supporting documents

Situation by Local Authority within Scotland

From March 1, cases data includes reinfections (where a person has a positive test 90 days or more since a last positive test). For cases by specimen date, historical cases have been retrospectively updated to include reinfections from the start of the pandemic.

In the week leading up to 20 March 2022, Na h-Eileanan Siar had the highest combined PCR and LFD weekly case rate by specimen date, reporting 3,079 cases per 100,000 population. Orkney Islands had the lowest weekly combined LFD and PCR case rate in the same time period, reporting 902 cases per 100,000. The total combined LFD and PCR weekly case rates by specimen date per 100,000 had increased in 10 local authorities in the week leading up to 20 March 2022 compared with the weekly case rate leading up to 13 March 2022, while 22 local authorities saw a decrease in the same period (Figure 12)[67].

Figure 12: Weekly total LFD or PCR case rates (including reinfections) per 100,000 people in Local Authorities across Scotland on 20 March 2022 by specimen date [68].

one colour coded map showing positive LFD and PCR weekly cases per 100,000 people by specimen date in each local authority in Scotland on 20 March 2022. The map ranges from grey for under 1,000 weekly cases per 100,000, through very light blue for 1,000-1,500, blue for 1,500-2,000, darker blue for 2,000-2,500, and very dark blue for over 2,500 weekly cases per 100,000 people.

Please note that the following local authority hotspot modelling uses data to 21 March 2022 from several academic groups to give an indication of whether a local authority is likely to experience high levels of Covid-19. The local authority modelling has not been compiled via UKHSA into a consensus this week and is based on one modelling group.

In less populated regions in which case numbers are small, there is a greater variation in model estimates, and hence increased uncertainty. This has led to Na h-Eileanan Siar, Orkney Islands and Shetland Islands not being included this week. The modelled weekly case rate below is not directly comparable to the weekly case rate reported in the section and figure above.

Modelled rates of positive tests per 100,000 indicate that for the week commencing 3 April, all 29 of the local authorities included are expected to exceed 100 cases per 100,000 with at least 75% probability. The same 29 local authorities are also expected to exceed 300 cases per 100,000, with at least 75% probability.

24 out of the 29 local authorities are expected to exceed 500 cases per 100,000, with at least 75% probability. The exceptions are Aberdeenshire, Aberdeen, Angus, East Renfrewshire and Moray. One local authority (South Ayrshire) is expected to exceed 1,000 cases per 100,000 with at least 75% probability[69].

Contact

Email: sgcentralanalysisdivision@gov.scot

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