Coronavirus (COVID-19) state of the epidemic 25 March 2022

Looking ahead

Scottish Contact Survey

Changes in patterns of mixing will impact on future case numbers. The Scottish Contact Survey measures the times and settings in which people mix where they could potentially spread Covid-19. Average contacts from the most recent Panel B cohort of the Scottish Contact Survey (week ending 16 March) indicate an average of 5.2 contacts.

Mean contacts have increased in the majority of location settings with the exception of contacts within the school setting which has decreased by 47% in the last two weeks. Contacts have risen in the work setting by 44%, in the other setting (contacts outside home, school and work) by 12% and in the home setting by 6%. Individuals within the youngest age groups (18-39) have reported a decrease in contacts within the last two weeks, with the 18-29 age group reducing by approximately 20%. Those within the older age groups (40+) have increased their contacts in the last two weeks with those in the 40-49 age group increasing the most, by 39%.

Modelling the Epidemic

The latest Modelling the Epidemic report includes projections over the next three weeks for new daily infections in Scotland. These projections include the effect of the uptake of the third vaccine dose, but does not yet account for the fourth dose. For a full account of the assumptions involved in the modelling, please see the Modelling the Epidemic report. It is estimated that daily infections may be up to 60,000 in mid-April. However, the future trajectory of infections is uncertain^[70].

Figure 13 shows the impact of the daily infection projections on the number of people in hospital. The modelling includes all hospital stays, whereas the actuals only include stays up to 28 days' duration that are linked to Covid-19. There continues to be uncertainty over hospital occupancy in the next three weeks.

Long Covid

According to the Office for National Statistic (ONS), long Covid is defined as symptoms persisting more than four weeks after the first suspected coronavirus (Covid-19) episode that are not explained by something else.

Estimates of the proportion of people in the private residential population in Scotland that experience long Covid symptoms are published by the ONS Covid-19 Infection Survey on a monthly basis. The next scheduled release of long Covid data from the Covid-19 Infection Survey is expected to be summarised in this report on 8 April. For information on the most recent estimates, see the State of the Epidemic report published on 4 March 2022.

Weekly modelled estimates for Scotland are also usually published in the Modelling the Epidemic report, which can be found here. However, a report on the rate of long Covid-19 has not been included this week. This will resume again once updated estimates of self-reported long Covid-19 prevalence amongst those infected with the less severe Omicron variant become available.