Coronavirus (COVID-19) state of the epidemic 26 May 2022

Summary

Since the last publication, the UKHSA consensus estimate of R has remained unchanged and is estimated to remain below one as at 10 May. The positivity estimate from the Covid-19 Infection Survey (CIS) for Scotland continued to decrease in the most recent week to 13 May. Over the past two weeks to 24 May, overall wastewater Covid-19 levels have remained at a similar level in Scotland. According to the CIS, the estimated percentage of people testing positive has decreased among all ages in recent weeks.

Both Covid-19 related daily hospital and ICU occupancy appears to have continued to decline in the most recent week to 22 May, after reaching the highest levels seen throughout the pandemic at the start of April 2022. Weekly numbers of Covid-19 admissions to hospital have continued to decrease in the week to 3 May, after reaching the highest levels seen throughout the pandemic in the week to 18 March. However, there appears to be an increase in the number of new Covid-19 patients admitted to ICU in the week to 8 May. Trends in hospital admissions and occupancy data are to be interpreted with caution due to recent changes in testing. There were 52 deaths where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate in the latest week, a decrease from the week before.

Key Points

• The UK Health Security Agency's (UKHSA) consensus estimate for R in Scotland as at 10 May is between 0.7 and 0.9. The lower and upper limits of the R value are unchanged since the previous publication.
• UKHSA was unable to form a consensus view on the incidence of new daily infections in Scotland as at 10 May.
• The latest estimated growth rate for Scotland as at 10 May was between -5% and -2%. The upper and lower growth limits have both increased since the previous publication.
• As determined through the latest weekly ONS Covid-19 Infection Survey (CIS), in Scotland, the percentage of people living in private residential households testing positive for Covid-19 continued to decrease in the week ending 13 May 2022. In the latest week, the estimated percentage of people testing positive was 2.32% (95% credible interval: 1.98% to 2.70%)^[3], equating to around 1 in 45 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 50 to 1 in 35).
• In the most recent week (7 to 13 May 2022), estimates for the percentage of people testing positive were similar for all CIS Regions in Scotland and ranged from 2.27% in CIS Region 126 (NHS Lothian) (95% credible interval: 1.81% to 2.85%) to 2.65% in CIS Region 123 (NHS Grampian, NHS Highland, NHS Orkney, NHS Shetland and NHS Western Isles) (95% credible interval: 2.13% to 3.36%).
• Nationwide, wastewater Covid-19 RNA levels in the past two weeks have had a similar average level as in our previous report. In the two weeks from 11 to 24 May, the medial level of Covid-19 in wastewater was 76 million gene copies per person per day (Mgc/p/d), compared to 82 Mgc/p/d previously. There is no significant difference between the two weeks.
• Please note that due to testing policy changes, reported cases will no longer be representative of all COVID-19 cases in Scotland, and caution is advised when comparing trends in cases over time. By specimen date, there were 114 weekly combined PCR and LFD cases (including reinfections) per 100,000 population in the week to 20 May.
• In the week to 22 May, daily Covid-19 hospital occupancy in Scotland appears to be on a decline; however, this is to be interpreted with caution due to latest changes in testing. NHS boards reported 663 patients in hospital or in short stay ICU on 22 May with recently confirmed Covid-19, compared to 845 on 15 May.
• In the week to 3 May, Covid-19 admissions to hospital in Scotland appear to be on a decline; NHS boards reported 600 admissions on 3 May, compared to 735 admissions the previous week ending 26 April. In the week to 8 May, there appears to be an increase in the number of new Covid-19 patients admitted to ICU; there were 21 new admissions in the week to 8 May, compared to 17 in the week to 1 May. These figures are to be interpreted with caution due to recent testing changes, and data continues to be lagged by two weeks from the latest available date due to high numbers of revisions.
• The overall number of Covid-19 deaths has decreased by 15%, or 9 deaths, to a total of 52 deaths in the week leading up to 22 May, compared to 61 in the week leading up to 15 May.
• In the week ending 22 May, the total number of deaths registered in Scotland was 1,191. This was 13% above the five-year average for this week.
• Omicron sub-lineage BA.2 remains dominant in the United Kingdom (UK) and Scotland based on sequencing data. Some diversity is developing within this variant, and also two Omicron sub-lineages BA.4 and BA.5 have been elevated to variants of concern (VOCs) due to their apparent growth advantage over Omicron BA.2. Small numbers of BA.4 and BA.5 sequences continue to be detected in the UK and Scotland.

Method

This report brings together a wide range of publicly available figures from a range of data sources. These include publications by Scottish Government, Public Heath Scotland, National Records of Scotland and Office for National Statistics along with scientific publications and SAGE and UKHSA summaries where appropriate to summarise the state of the epidemic in Scotland in a given week. We also provide information on public attitudes to the virus from monthly YouGov polling surveys and fortnightly information from the Scottish Contact Survey.