Coronavirus (COVID-19) state of the epidemic 26 May 2022

Looking ahead

New Variants

VOC-22JAN-01 (Omicron sub-lineage BA.2) remains dominant in the United Kingdom (UK) and Scotland based on sequencing data. There is some diversity developing within this variant. The UKHSA has elevated classification of two Omicron sub-lineages BA.4 and BA.5 to variants of concern (VOCs) naming them VOC-22APR-03 and VOC-22APR-04 respectively^[58]. This change was introduced on the basis of the growth advantage of BA.4 and BA.5 over currently dominant Omicron BA.2. There can be several reasons for growth advantage, but in the case of BA.4 and BA.5, laboratory data suggests a degree of immune escape is likely to contribute^[59]. Small numbers of BA.4 and BA.5 sequences continue to be detected in the UK^[60]. There is currently insufficient data to draw conclusions on the disease severity of BA.4 and BA.5^[61].

Scottish Contact Survey

Changes in patterns of mixing will likely impact on future Covid-19 prevalence. The Scottish Contact Survey measures the times and settings in which people mix where they could potentially spread Covid-19^[62]. Average contacts from the most recent wave of the Scottish Contact Survey (12 to 18 May) indicate an average of 5.0 contacts. This has remained at a similar level compared to the previous wave of the survey (28 April to 4 May).

Mean contacts within the work setting have decreased in the last two weeks by 26% whereas contacts within the other setting (contacts outside home, school and work) have increased by 33%. Contacts within the home have remained at a similar level over the same period.

Those within the 18-29 age group have reported the biggest increase in contacts, by approximately 40%. This increase is largely driven by a rise in contacts within the other setting. Those within the 30-39 and 50-59 age group reported a decrease in contacts, by at least 12%.

Modelling the Epidemic

Scottish Government medium-term projections on infections, and hospital and ICU occupancy are not included in this edition of the report, or the Modelling the Epidemic Report this week.

Long Covid-19

According to the Office for National Statistic (ONS), long Covid is defined as symptoms persisting more than four weeks after the first suspected coronavirus (Covid-19) episode that are not explained by something else.

Estimates of the proportion of people living in private households in Scotland who experience long Covid symptoms are published by the ONS Covid-19 Infection Survey on a monthly basis. The next scheduled release of long Covid data from the Covid-19 Infection Survey is expected to be summarised in this report on 10 June. For information on the most recent estimates, see the State of the Epidemic report published on 13 May 2022.

Fortnightly modelled estimates for Scotland are also usually published in the Modelling the Epidemic report. However, a report on the rate of long Covid-19 has not been included this week. This will resume again once updated estimates of self-reported long Covid-19 prevalence amongst those infected with the less severe Omicron variant become available.