Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 28 January 2022

Summary

The Covid-19 Infection Survey shows that the number of people in the private residential population testing positive for Covid-19 decreased in the week to 22 January 2022, from a peak in early January 2022. The seven-day average number of combined PCR or LFD daily reported cases has been fluctuating since mid-January 2022, after decreasing in early January. Similarly, combined PCR and LFD daily cases by reporting date (as per data from the PHS Daily Dashboard) have been fluctuating in all age groups since around mid-January, with the daily case rates having decreased in all age groups apart from those aged 14 or below in the period from 6 January to 26 January. Among those aged 14 or below, the daily case rate has increased. This aligns with data from the PHS Education dashboard, where combined PHS and LFD weekly case rates by specimen date have increased for those aged under 16 in the week to 23 January.

The rapid increase in PCR confirmed cases throughout December 2021, as a result of the spread of the Omicron variant, translated into a high level of Covid-19 hospital admissions, peaking at an average of over 150 per day at the beginning of January 2022. Overall admissions to hospital for people with confirmed Covid-19 have since decreased and continued to decrease in the most recent week, but hospital admissions for those under 22 show a different trend and have continued to increase in the most recent week. Similarly, Covid-19 ICU admissions are now decreasing from a peak in early January 2022. Covid deaths have increased over the past three weeks, with the biggest increase seen among those aged over 85.

Key Points

• The reproduction rate R in Scotland is between 0.7 and 0.9, as of 11 January 2022. The upper limit of the R value has decreased since the R value published last week, while the lower limit has remained unchanged.
• Latest modelled estimates suggest that, as at 11 January 2022, the incidence of new daily infections in Scotland was between 47 and 572 new infections per 100,000 people.
• The daily growth rate for Scotland is currently estimated as between -8% and

-2% as at 11 January 2022. The upper limit has decreased since the previous week, while the lower growth limit remains unchanged.

• As determined through the latest weekly ONS infection survey, the percentage of people testing positive for Covid-19 in the private residential population in Scotland continued to decrease in the week 16 to 22 January 2022, equating to around 1 in 30 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 35 to 1 in 30).
• The seven-day average number of combined PCR or LFD daily reported cases has been fluctuating since mid-January 2022. An average number of 7,428 cases confirmed by either a PCR or LFD test were reported per day in the week leading up to 26 January 2022. This a 1% increase from the daily average of 7,360 cases reported in the week leading up to 19 January 2021.
• As of 26 January 2022, the highest combined PCR and LFD daily case rates by reporting date per 100,000 population were observed amongst those aged 0-14 and 25-44, followed by those aged 15-19, 20-24, 45-64, and aged 85 or over. The lowest daily combined PCR and LFD cases per 100,000 were in the age groups 65-74 and 75-84.
• According to data from the PHS education dashboard, the combined PCR and LFD weekly case rate by specimen date per 100,000 among children and young adults have increased for all age groups younger than 16 in the week to 23 January compared to the previous week (ending 16 January), with the biggest increase seen among those aged 5-11. Weekly case rates have decreased for the age groups 16-17, 18-19 and 20-21 in the same week.
• In the week to and including 26 January 2022, Covid-19 hospital occupancy decreased overall by 12% and Covid-19 ICU occupancy (short and long stay) decreased by 27% from the previous week (19 January 2022).
• Admissions to hospital in the week to 22 January 2022 decreased by 28% compared to the previous week ending 15 January, while ICU admissions have decreased by 27% in the week to 25 January 2022 compared to the previous week ending 18 January.
• Average hospital admissions (three-week rolling average) related to Covid-19 in children and young adults (aged under 22) have continued to increase overall in the week leading up to 19 January 2022 compared to the previous three-week period leading up to 12 January, and have surpassed the previous peak seen in September 2021. Hospital admissions related to Covid-19 in children and young adults are the highest since the start of the pandemic. These figures refer both to young patients in hospital because of Covid-19 and with Covid-19.
• After a period of decrease in Covid-19 death numbers throughout the last quarter of 2021, the three weeks leading up to 23 January 2022 have seen a sharp increase in the number of deaths where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate, from 45 deaths in the week to 2 January 2022 to 145 deaths registered in the week to 23 January 2022.
• As at 26 January, Aberdeen City had the highest daily combined PCR or LFD case rate in Scotland, reporting 226 cases per 100,000. Na h-Eileanan Siar had the lowest daily combined PCR or LFD case rate, reporting 53 cases per 100,000 on the same day.

Method

This report brings together a wide range of publically available figures from a range of data sources. These include publications by Scottish Government, Public Heath Scotland, National Records of Scotland and Office for National Statistics along with scientific publications and SAGE and UKHSA summaries where appropriate to summarise the state of the epidemic in Scotland in a given week. We also provide information on public attitudes to the virus from weekly YouGov polling surveys.