Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 28 January 2022

Situation by Local Authority within Scotland

Please note that the methodology for comparing case rates between local authorities has changed following the testing policy changes announced on 5 January 2022. Previously this section presented a weekly PCR case rate per 100,000 population by specimen date. This has changed to a daily case rate based on either only PCR, only LFD or a combined PCR and LFD case rate by reporting date. This means that the results presented in this section are not comparable to previous State of the Epidemic Report publications.

As at 26 January, Aberdeen City had the highest daily combined PCR and LFD case rate by reporting date in Scotland, reporting 226 cases per 100,000. Na h-Eileanan Siar had the lowest daily combined PCR and LFD case rate, reporting 53 cases per 100,000 on the same day. The total combined LFD and PCR daily case rates by reporting date per 100,000 had increased in 18 local authorities on 26 January 2022 compared with the daily case rate on 19 January, while 14 local authorities saw a decrease in the same period (Figure 13)^[68].

However, this trend differs between types of testing. Based on only PCR daily case rates by reporting date, 16 local authorities had seen an increase in daily cases per 100,000 on 26 January compared to 19 January. However, based on LFD only daily case rates by reporting date, 29 out of 32 local authorities had seen an increase in daily case rates on 26 January compared to 19 January. The only local authorities that had seen a decrease in LFD only daily case rates by reporting date in this period were Moray, Inverclyde and East Lothian.

Please note that the following local authority hotspot modelling uses data to 24 January 2022 from several academic groups to give an indication of whether a local authority is likely to experience high levels of Covid-19. This has been compiled via UKHSA into a consensus. The modelled weekly case rate below is not directly comparable to the daily case rate reported in the section and figure above.

There is uncertainty in regions with smaller populations, and hence lower test counts. This has led to one model not being included in the combination for Na h-Eileanan Siar and Shetland Islands.

Modelled rates of positive tests per 100,000 population indicate that, for the week commencing 6 February 2022, 22 of the 32 local authorities are expected to exceed 50 cases per 100,000 population with at least 75% probability^[69]. These are Aberdeen City, Argyll and Bute, Edinburgh, Clackmannanshire, Dundee, East Ayrshire, East Dunbartonshire, East Lothian, East Renfrewshire, Falkirk, Fife, Glasgow, Inverclyde, Midlothian, North Ayrshire, North Lanarkshire, Perth and Kinross, Renfrewshire, South Ayrshire ,South Lanarkshire, West Dunbartonshire, and West Lothian.

Nine local authorities are expected to exceed 100 cases per 100,000 population, with at least 75% probability. These are Aberdeen City, Argyll and Bute, Edinburgh, Clackmannanshire, Dundee, East Lothian, Fife, Perth and Kinross, and South Lanarkshire. One local authority (Dundee) is expected to exceed 300 cases per 100,000 population, with at least 75% probability.

No local authorities are expected to exceed 500 cases per 100,000 population with at least 75% probability^[70].