Coronavirus (COVID-19): Route Map - supporting evidence for the October 2020 review

Evidence on Phase 4 criteria

To progress to Phase 4, the following criterion must be met:

"The virus is no longer considered a significant threat to public health."

The Chief Medical Officer provides advice on whether this criterion has been met. He has confirmed that his view as expressed at the last review point remains valid and that the Phase 4 criterion has not been met. This judgement reflects both domestic and international data on the progress of the epidemic. Since the last review, there has been a continuing increase in the numbers of confirmed cases in most parts of Scotland, with cases increasing quickly in all age groups. As such, the threat has not receded, but continues to increase. The R number is now above 1. Key conditions remain to be met that would support a judgement that the disease no longer represents a significant threat to public health, such as the roll-out of an effective vaccine programme and/or development of effective treatments for the virus that significantly reduced public health risk.