Publication - Research and analysis
Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic
Report presents the approach taken by the Scottish Government in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirements
Key Points
- Modelling of the epidemic in Scotland is undertaken to look at the progression of the epidemic and to inform logistical response required.
- This is done over two time periods. Short term, for the next two weeks, and longer term. Both these help to forecast Covid-19 in Scotland.
- A number of different models are used from academic groups across the UK and Scottish Government.
- We use the value of R to talk about Covid-19 in Scotland. On the 8th May R in Scotland was estimated at between 0.7 & 1.0.
- Before the stay at home guidance was put in place in Scotland, the value of R was significantly above 1.
- The modelling shows that the number of cases, hospital and ICT use and deaths are likely to fall slightly over the next two weeks.
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