Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic
Report presents the approach taken by the Scottish Government in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirements
Estimating R in different settings
There are at least three different epidemics in Scotland currently in the general population, care homes, and hospitals. Rt is likely to be different in each of these settings. The model currently being used is a "whole population" model, which analyses the spread of the disease across Scotland as a whole. Other types of models are needed to analyse smaller units such as care homes and hospitals. We are working with academic groups from around the UK to develop modelling for these settings.
In order to control the epidemic in Scotland, ideally we need a low number of infected people who can pass the virus on to others and a low Rt below 1. We would be achieving this when the reproductive rate is not increasing in any of these locations.
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