Publication - Research and analysis
Neonatal intensive care unit services - demand and capacity modelling: final report
This report outlines this modelling approach, inputs, and interpretation of the outputs to support the future of neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) services.
Annex C – Projected impacts
Projected Impacts on Required Cot Capacity
| Scenario | Aberdeen Maternity IC Cots | RHCG IC Cots | Simpson Centre IC Cots | Ninewells IC Cots | Princess Royal Maternity IC Cots | Victoria Hospital Fife IC Cots | University Hospital Wishaw IC Cots | University Hospital Crosshouse IC Cots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 10.0 | 16.0 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 |
| Adjusted Occupancy | (5.8) | (1.0) | 0.0 | (0.7) | (0.0) | (3.1) | (0.8) | (3.3) |
| 26 / 27 Population | (0.1) | (0.1) | 0.0 | (0.0) | (0.0) | (0.0) | 0.0 | (0.0) |
| Incidence trends | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | - | 0.1 | - |
| Shift Gestation Cohort | 0.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | (1.1) | (1.8) | - | (2.9) | - |
| Shift Weight Cohort | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | (0.2) | (0.0) | - | (0.4) | (0.0) |
| Shift Interventions Cohort | 0.2 | 2.6 | 0.5 | (0.3) | (0.6) | (0.4) | (2.1) | - |
| Shift IC Extended Days Cohort | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | (0.2) | (0.2) | (0.1) | (0.3) | (0.3) |
| Projection | 5.5 | 22.5 | 11.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
Note: Increases and (reductions) seen in each scenario
| Scenario | Aberdeen Maternity HD Cots | RHCG HD Cots | Simpson Centre HD Cots | Ninewells HD Cots | Princess Royal Maternity HD Cots | Victoria Hospital Fife HD Cots | University Hospital Wishaw HD Cots | University Hospital Crosshouse HD Cots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 5.0 | 14.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 |
| Adjusted Occupancy | 1.4 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 1.8 | (3.3) | (0.5) |
| 26 / 27 Population | (0.1) | (0.1) | 0.1 | (0.1) | (0.0) | (0.1) | (0.0) | (0.0) |
| Incidence trends | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| Shift Gestation Cohort | 0.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | (0.6) | (0.7) | (0.1) | (0.6) | (0.0) |
| Shift Weight Cohort | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | (0.1) | (0.0) | - | (0.1) | (0.0) |
| Shift Interventions Cohort | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | (0.1) | (0.3) | (0.2) | (0.5) | - |
| Shift IC Extended Days Cohort | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | (0.1) | (0.1) | (0.0) | (0.1) | (0.0) |
| Projection | 6.9 | 17.7 | 11.2 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 3.4 |
Note: Increases and (reductions) seen in each scenario
| Scenario | Aberdeen Maternity SC Cots | RHCG SC Cots | Simpson Centre SC Cots | Ninewells SC Cots | Princess Royal Maternity SC Cots | Victoria Hospital Fife SC Cots | University Hospital Wishaw SC Cots | University Hospital Crosshouse SC Cots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 19.0 | 20.0 | 22.0 | 14.0 | 18.0 | 14.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| Adjusted Occupancy | (2.0) | 1.5 | (1.9) | (3.2) | (4.8) | (7.4) | 3.6 | (1.4) |
| 26 / 27 Population | (0.1) | (0.1) | 0.2 | (0.1) | (0.0) | (0.1) | (0.0) | (0.1) |
| Incidence trends | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| Shift Gestation Cohort | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | (0.0) | (0.0) | (0.0) | (0.0) | (0.0) |
| Shift Weight Cohort | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | (0.0) | (0.0) | - | (0.0) | (0.0) |
| Shift Interventions Cohort | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | (0.0) | (0.1) | (0.0) | (0.1) | - |
| Shift IC Extended Days Cohort | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | (0.0) | (0.0) | (0.0) | (0.0) | (0.0) |
| Projection | 17.0 | 21.8 | 20.4 | 10.6 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 14.4 | 9.5 |
Note: Increases and (reductions) seen in each scenario
Projected Impacts on Care Days
| Scenario | Aberdeen Maternity IC Days | RHCG IC Days | Simpson Centre IC Days | Ninewells IC Days | Princess Royal Maternity IC Days | Victoria Hospital Fife IC Days | University Hospital Wishaw IC Days | University Hospital Crosshouse IC Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 1,004 | 3,549 | 2,146 | 791 | 947 | 222 | 1,704 | 400 |
| Adjusted Occupancy | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 26 / 27 Population | (15) | (19) | 12 | (8) | (1) | (3) | 0 | (5) |
| Incidence trends | 8 | 17 | 27 | 7 | 13 | - | 18 | - |
| Shift Gestation Cohort | 165 | 880 | 345 | (265) | (428) | - | (696) | - |
| Shift Weight Cohort | 46 | 114 | 10 | (57) | (9) | - | (100) | (6) |
| Shift Interventions Cohort | 55 | 613 | 116 | (79) | (130) | (86) | (489) | - |
| Shift IC Extended Days Cohort | 38 | 179 | 42 | (46) | (52) | (19) | (69) | (73) |
| Projection | 1,302 | 5,333 | 2,698 | 342 | 340 | 114 | 369 | 316 |
Note: Increases and (reductions) seen in each scenario
| Scenario | Aberdeen Maternity HD Days | RHCG HD Days | Simpson Centre HD Days | Ninewells HD Days | Princess Royal Maternity HD Days | Victoria Hospital Fife HD Days | University Hospital Wishaw HD Days | University Hospital Crosshouse HD Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 1,887 | 4,470 | 3,002 | 1,650 | 1,979 | 1,109 | 1,971 | 1,030 |
| Adjusted Occupancy | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 26 / 27 Population | (19) | (22) | 25 | (17) | (4) | (16) | (1) | (14) |
| Incidence trends | 7 | 14 | 20 | 10 | 11 | 2 | 9 | - |
| Shift Gestation Cohort | 90 | 357 | 131 | (163) | (208) | (28) | (178) | (3) |
| Shift Weight Cohort | 23 | 42 | 7 | (29) | (13) | - | (18) | (11) |
| Shift Interventions Cohort | 10 | 225 | 54 | (18) | (74) | (46) | (151) | - |
| Shift IC Extended Days Cohort | 24 | 55 | 17 | (28) | (22) | (12) | (24) | (12) |
| Projection | 2,022 | 5,140 | 3,257 | 1,405 | 1,670 | 1,009 | 1,609 | 990 |
Note: Increases and (reductions) seen in each scenario
| Scenario | Aberdeen Maternity SC Days | RHCG SC Days | Simpson Centre SC Days | Ninewells SC Days | Princess Royal Maternity SC Days | Victoria Hospital Fife SC Days | University Hospital Wishaw SC Days | University Hospital Crosshouse SC Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 4,968 | 6,271 | 5,879 | 3,140 | 3,842 | 1,932 | 4,255 | 2,811 |
| Adjusted Occupancy | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 26 / 27 Population | (20) | (22) | 59 | (32) | (11) | (29) | (5) | (40) |
| Incidence trends | 2 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | - |
| Shift Gestation Cohort | 1 | 25 | 3 | (2) | (11) | (2) | (14) | (1) |
| Shift Weight Cohort | 0 | 5 | 1 | (1) | (2) | - | (2) | (1) |
| Shift Interventions Cohort | 1 | 50 | 6 | (2) | (15) | (5) | (35) | - |
| Shift IC Extended Days Cohort | 4 | 24 | 4 | (6) | (10) | (2) | (8) | (6) |
| Projection | 4,958 | 6,363 | 5,953 | 3,098 | 3,797 | 1,895 | 4,197 | 2,762 |
Note: Increases and (reductions) seen in each scenario
Contact
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