Developing a modern statistical system - a review of Scotland's Census 2022

Official Statistics and the Office of the Chief Statistician

This section considers the relationships which helped to deliver the 2022 Census and makes recommendations for how agencies who produce official statistics, including NRS, can work with the Office of the Chief Statistician in the Scottish Government.

The Census programme and Scottish Government statistics

NRS has expertise in population statistics and is one of a number of bodies producing official government statistics, including Public Health Scotland and Scottish Government (see Annex A). However, it does not have overall responsibility for the statistical system in Scotland. This responsibility lies with the Scottish Government and the Chief Statistician.

There are long standing positive collaborative relationships between the census programme in NRS and equivalent programmes in agencies from census taking countries across the world, and in particular, with the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA). NRS statisticians are part of the Scottish Government Statisticians group and share common recruitment, training and other professional development activity, including a formal process for rotation of posts. In interviews, senior statisticians in NRS stated that expertise and assurance capability in issues relating to census statistical design are more likely to be found in census taking bodies from other countries, including UK colleagues at ONS, rather than within the wider Scottish Government statistics group.

There was a culture of information sharing and expertise from initially the 2016 and then the 2021 round of census with formal and informal international groups meeting regularly at a working level. As a result, statisticians and other professional groupings in NRS have traditionally leaned towards building those relationships with equivalent agencies in other census taking countries in the statistical design phase ahead of equivalent groupings in Scottish Government. There is alignment and sharing of expertise between NRS and SG in specific areas including questionnaire design and quality assurance.

Less strong or less well established relationships with Scottish Government over time led to a lower level of shared knowledge and expertise between these internal professional groupings as compared to those with outside agencies. Whilst some concepts and challenges of statistical design can be census specific, other issues which may have been common to other programmes in Scotland were not initially widely shared. This limited the scope of contingency available from SG at different phases of the programme and resulted in less flexibility to cope with challenges as they arose.

While it is the primary responsibility of NRS, the successful delivery of the census is dependent on resources and expertise delivered from multiple ministerial portfolios including digital, data and corporate services. There were occasions where despite NRS openly reporting risks facing the census programme itself, senior leaders in Scottish Government did not have a strategic overview of the risks and potential wider impacts on the statistical system which would expect to sit in the portfolio of the Chief Statistician. This led to uncertainty and negative impacts including confidence in NRS to deliver.

Findings

Census data underpins the Scottish statistical system and therefore policy delivery across all of Scottish Government. The advice of the Chief Statistician should be sought on the impact of programmes across the statistical system with explicit ownership and an overview of wider risks.

Increased visibility, sponsorship and ownership of census and population statistics from across different portfolios and policy areas which use the outputs could have positive impacts for the delivery of the programme. With increased financial and political visibility, and associated confidence in delivery, census and population statistics more generally could be seen more positively not only as an administrative government function but also as an opportunity for policy delivery.

Strong collaborative relationships and a culture of information sharing with census taking organisations in other countries is desirable and appropriate, and these are to be encouraged, but these should be developed alongside closer links between statistical, digital and operational delivery functions in Scottish Government and agencies. Statisticians in the Scottish Government group should learn from the pioneering approach to administrative data linkage developed by NRS.

There are some activities which require specific census-type expertise, but strategies should be developed to enable wider statistical resources to be used most effectively. The Chief Statistician should consider activities to enable planning and training for the wider statistical profession to be linked to the broader skills needed for delivery of major programmes cross-cutting delivered by different organisations across the Scottish statistical system.

This aligns with Recommendation 2: The Chief Statistician should consider opportunities to enable planning and training for the wider statistical profession to be linked to the broader skills needed for delivery of Cross-cutting Statistical Components by different organisations across the Scottish statistical system.

Openness and transparency about challenges with the statistical community

The census programme in Scotland created some unique challenges, as well as some which may have been common to other public sector digital programmes, but which were perhaps not as visible or usually applicable to census or other statistics led activity.

As the programme developed, the leadership in NRS has increasingly recognised and endorsed the sharing of these challenges with communities of peers. This has also included a greater level of communication to meet expectations set out in the statistics code of practice.

There has been a broader awareness of risks and challenges for the programme which has encouraged support from the wider statistics community, recognising the importance of the census programme which underpins other statistical activity. This support for NRS statisticians and other disciplines working on the programme led to an acknowledgement that problems do not need to be fixed by small group and a more positive culture of openness and transparency. It has also enhanced confidence and trustworthiness in census estimates as well as the ability of NRS as an organisation to deliver.

Findings

Future programmes should build on this open culture of collaboration which acknowledges statistical, digital transformation and operational challenges. The Chief Statistician should have oversight of programmes which contribute to the Scottish statistical system and engage with the wider statistical community to address emerging issues in the development of an integrated statistical system.

Consideration should be given to the development of a statistical assurance framework to support delivery of large scale statistical programmes, operating alongside existing finance, programme management and digital assurance functions.

This aligns with Recommendation 4: The Chief Statistician should consider what mechanisms are required to provide oversight and assurance of Cross-cutting Statistical Components in a holistic way and escalation of key decisions that could impact an integrated statistical system.

International steering group, technical panel and external expertise

When it became clear that return rates from census collection were not as high as anticipated, NRS worked swiftly to improve returns by reviewing and revising its statistical methods, on the advice of international census experts, so it can produce the best possible estimates of the population of Scotland. This differed in nature from other external statistical methods groups in which NRS participated due to the short timescales and operational nature of the challenges faced at that time by the Scotland’s Census 2022.

The OSR considered that the steps NRS has taken to adapt its statistical methods are examples of good practice when faced with challenging circumstances, drawing on expertise and exploring new solutions in a flexible and considered way. Expertise was drawn largely from ONS and international census taking countries to meet census specific challenges.

The steps NRS has taken to adapt its statistical methods, by drawing on a variety of international and other technical expertise and exploring new solutions in a flexible and considered way, have been recognised within the statistical community as examples of good practice when faced with challenging circumstances. The approach of NRS to tackling these challenges may have future application for other areas of population statistics, different statistical topics and the wider Government Statistical Service.

Findings

The relevant expertise found in other census taking countries should continue to benefit delivery of statistics in Scotland alongside an internal assurance function for statistics.

NRS already intend to adopt the model of an International Steering Group (ISG) or similar technical expertise to advise future programmes and to have this in place in advance of any future programme. Consideration should be given to this model being applicable to other programmes in the statistical system.

This aligns with Recommendation 4: The Chief Statistician should consider what mechanisms are required to provide oversight and assurance of Cross-cutting Statistical Components in a holistic way and escalation of key decisions that could impact an integrated statistical system.