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Publication - Research and analysis

Planning policy - section 3F: research

Published
23 March 2021
Topic
Building, planning and design, Energy, Environment and climate change
ISBN
9781800048553

Report commissioned to help develop a Scotland wide Section 3F planning policy, by proposing reasonable levels of CO2 (Carbon dioxide) emissions reduction that can be expected from use of low and zero carbon generating technologies (LZCGTs) in new buildings.

View supporting documents Supporting documents

Appendix B: Scenario Development

Scenario Graphs & Summary Tables

The following graphs and summary tables were used to determine what would be an appropriate LZCGT contribution to the energy demand in new domestic buildings under different CO2 emission reduction standards. The data represented here is the predicted energy demand for dwellings ranging in size from 25m2 to 300m2 under three different fabric energy efficiency standards. It was generated as described in the main report using formula prescribed in the Standard Assessment Procedure SAP 2012 (BRE, 2014).

The three modelled scenarios were developed to represent a level of fabric energy efficiency that might be reasonably expected and achievable by a moderate sized dwelling built under the Scottish Building Standards (Table: B.1). These scenarios were developed to provide a better understanding of how changes to the fabric energy efficiency context impact on overall annual energy consumption and the size of LZCGT installations that would be required to meet proposed contribution targets. The annual space heat demands used to represent these fabric energy efficiency scenarios are 45kWh/m2.annum, 30kWh/m2.annum and 15kWh/m2.annum respectively.

These scenarios can be viewed as representing past (2012), present (2020 - 2021) and future (2024 -2050) fabric energy efficiency contexts, and thus allow a more accurate model of how tightening CO2 emission reduction standards may impact on the contribution and cost-effectiveness of LZCGT. Alternatively, they may be viewed sociologically in terms of diffusion theory as representing: laggards and the late majority; the early majority; and early adopter and innovators respectively (Gladwell, 2000). The impact of not improving fabric energy efficiency on the size and capacity of LZCGT installations needed to meet contribution targets can be clearly seen by comparing the same graphs from different scenarios.

Table B.1: Summary of Scenarios
Scenario 1: 45kWh/m2.annum Past 2012 Laggards & Late Majority
Scenario 2: 30kWh/m2.annum Present / Near Future 2020-2021 Early Majority
Scenario 3: 15kWh/m2.annum Future 2024-2050 Early Adopters & Innovators

Interpreting the Graphs

For help understanding how the graphs can be used to evaluate whether potential LZCGT options will meet a specific emission reduction targets see Figure B.1 below.

Figure B.1 Interpreting the graphs
Figure details below

Scenario 1: Past (2012)

Figure S1.1: Scenario 1: Annual Energy Demands by use and total relative to dwelling size.
Figure details in title

Scenario 1: Past (2012)

Figure S1.2: Potential Minimum LZCGT Contribution (Single System Approach) and AED relative to dwelling size
Figure details in title

Scenario 1: Past (2012)

Figure S1.3: Potential Minimum LZCGT Contribution (Dual System Approach) and AED relative to dwelling size
Figure details in title

Scenario 1: Past (2012)

Figure S1.4: Potential Minimum LZCGT Contribution ( PV Generation) and AED relative to dwelling size
Figure details in title

Scenario 1: Past (2012)

Figure S1.5: Potential Minimum LZCGT Contributions (Single System Approach) as a % of AED relative to dwelling size
Figure details in title

Scenario 1: Past (2012)

Figure S1.6: Potential Minimum LZCGT Contribution (Dual System Approach) as a % of AED relative to dwelling size.
Figure details in title

Scenario 1: Past (2012)

Figure S1.7: Potential Minimum LZCGT Contribution ( PV Generation) as a % of AED relative to dwelling size.
Figure details in title

Scenario 1: Past (2012)

Figure S1.8: Proposed Minimum LZCGT Contribution Targets and Annual Energy Demand relative to dwelling size
Figure details in title

Scenario 1: Past (Space Heat Demand = 45 kWh/m2.annum)

Table S1.1: Annual Energy Demand by use and total & potential LZCGT Targets as a percentage of AED relative to critically dwelling sizes for affordable housing (45-100 m 2)
Figure details in title

Scenario 2: Present/Near Future (2020-2021)

Figure S2.1: Annual Energy Demands by use and total relative to dwelling size.
Figure details in title

Scenario 2: Present/Near Future (2020-2021)

Figure S2.2: Potential Minimum LZCGT Contributions (Single System Approach) and AED relative to dwelling size.
Figure details in title

Scenario 2: Present/Near Future (2020-2021)

Figure S2.3: Potential Minimum LZCGT Contributions (Dual System Approach) and AED relative to dwelling size.
Figure details in title

Scenario 2: Present/Near Future (2020-2021)

Figure S2.4: Potential Minimum LZCGT Contribution ( PV Generation) and AED relative to dwelling size
Figure details in title

Scenario 2: Present/Near Future (2020-2021)

Figure S2.5: Potential Minimum LZCGT Contributions (Single System Approach) as a % of AED relative to dwelling size.
Figure details in title

Scenario 2: Present/Near Future (2020-2021)

Figure S2.6: Potential Minimum LZCGT Contributions (Dual System Approach) as a % of AED relative to dwelling size.
Figure details in title

Scenario 2: Present/Near Future (2020-2021)

Figure S2.7: Potential Minimum LZCGT Contribution ( PV Generation) as a % of AED relative to dwelling size.
Figure details in title

Scenario 2: Present/Near Future (2020-2021)

Figure S2.8: Proposed Minimum LZCGT Targets and Annual Energy Demand relative to dwelling size
Figure details in title

Scenario 2: Present/Near Future (SHD = 30kWh/m2.annum)

Table S2.1: Annual Energy Demands by use and total & potential LZCGT Targets as a percentage of AED relative to critically dwelling sizes for affordable housing (45-100 m 2)
Figure details in title

Scenario 3: Future (2024-2050)

Figure S3.1: Annual Energy Demands by use and total relative to dwelling size.
Figure details in title

Scenario 3: Future (2024-2050)

Figure S3.2: Potential Minimum LZCGT Contributions (Single System Approach) and AED relative to dwelling size.
Figure details in title

Scenario 3: Future (2024-2050)

Figure S3.3: Potential Minimum LZCGT Contributions (Dual System Approach) and AED relative to dwelling size.
Figure details in title

Scenario 3: Future (2024-2050)

Figure S3.4: Potential Minimum LZCGT Contribution ( PV Generation) and AED relative to dwelling size
Figure details in title

Scenario 3: Future (2024-2050)

Figure S3.5: Potential Minimum LZCGT Contributions (Single System Approach) as a % of AED relative to dwelling size.
Figure details in title

Scenario 3: Future (2024-2050)

Figure S3.6: Potential Minimum LZCGT Contributions (Dual System Approach) as a % of AED relative to dwelling size.
Figure details in title

Scenario 3: Future (2024-2050)

Figure S3.7: Potential Minimum LZCGT Contribution ( PV Generation) as a % of AED relative to dwelling size
Figure details in title

Scenario 3: Future (2024-2050)

Figure S3.8: Proposed Minimum LZCGT Targets and Annual Energy Demand relative to dwelling size
Figure details in title

Scenario 3: Future (SHD = 15kWh/m2.annum)

Table S3.1: Annual Energy Demands by use and total & potential LZCGT Targets as a percentage of AED relative to critically dwelling sizes for affordable housing (45-100 m 2)
Formula

Contact

Email: chief.planner@gov.scot

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