Developing the Young Workforce Scotland's Youth Employment Strategy 2nd Annual Report 2015/2016
Second Developing the Young Workforce annual report covering the academic year 2015 to 2016.
Chapter 5: Performance Assessment & Evaluation
When we published Developing the Young Workforce ( DYW) - Scotland's Youth Unemployment Strategy in December 2015, we made a commitment to report annually on the progress of its implementation over its seven year life span.
Eleven key performance indicators ( KPIs) were developed, reflecting our areas of focus and the long-term ambitions for the programme. These are stretching and ambitious targets given the scale of change proposed, its complexity and the range of factors which will influence the programme's success. Alongside these, a number of milestones were identified for each theme which demonstrates what we expect the programme to achieve each year. We have also been developing an overall evaluation framework which will provide a broader assessment of the programme as a whole against its intended outcomes.
Progress towards the overarching target and KPIs for the programme over the past year are set out in the table overleaf. The programme is still in its early stages and so it worth noting that for some of the KPIs, data has only recently become available or has yet to update since our last annual report in 2015. This limits what we can say about our KPIs at this time. However, there are some for which we have data and are able to track progress. Over the past year, there has been:
- an overall reduction in the rate of youth employment against the baseline figure;
- an increase in the percentage of school leavers attaining vocational qualifications at SCQF level 5 and above;
- an increase in the number of Modern Apprenticeships at level 3 and above and an increase in the percentage of ethnic minority MA starts;
- an increase in the employment rate for disabled people; and
- an increase in the gender balance in our most imbalanced subject groups at college.
In our previous annual report, a number of milestones were set out under each theme for each academic year across the programme's lifespan. This year's report sets out progress to date on those for AY 2016/17, with many milestones already completed across all of the themes. Other milestones are on-going and we will report on these in our 2017 annual report.
In addition to developing our KPIs and milestones, over the past year we have undertaken a range of activity to develop an evaluation framework which will provide further insight as to how the programme is performing. This includes data mapping and gap analysis of evidence relative to DYW, and the establishment of an evaluation project team comprising key delivery partners Education Scotland, SDS and the SFC. In the coming year, the evaluation project team will identify priority areas for DYW that require further analysis. This analysis will complement our existing measures of progress and provide a more comprehensive overview of the performance of the programme.
Key Performance Indicators ( KPIs) Table
| KPI | Baseline figure | 1 st Annual report figure | Current figure | Data source | Data frequency | Area of the Programme |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overarching target To reduce the level of youth unemployment (excluding those in full-time education) by 40 per cent by 2021 |
52,000 (Jan-Mar 2014) |
41,000 (Jan-Mar 2015) |
42,000 (Jan-Mar 2016) | Labour Force Survey ( ONS) | Annual, using Jan-Mar data | Schools |
| KPI 1 Be one of the top five performing countries in the EU for youth unemployment by reducing the relative ratio of youth unemployment to 25-64 unemployment to the level of the fifth best country in the EU by 2021 |
3.7 (Jan-Dec 2013) The ratio of the fifth best country in the EU was 2.1 |
3.9 (Jan-Dec 2014) The ratio of the fifth best country in the EU was 2.1 |
3.2 (Jan-Dec 2015) The ratio of the fifth best country in the EU was 1.9 |
Scotland data: Annual Population Survey ( ONS); EU data: OECD Stat | Scotland data: Annual, by calendar year; EU data: Annual | Schools |
| KPI 2 Be one of the top five performing countries in the EU for youth unemployment by reducing the youth unemployment rate to match the fifth best country in the EU by 2021 |
19.0% (Jan-Mar 2014) The rate of the fifth best country in the EU was 14.7% |
13.8% (Jan-Mar 2015) The rate of the fifth best country in the EU was 11.7% |
15.8% (Jan-Mar 2016) The rate of the fifth best country in the EU was 11.9% |
Scotland data: Labour Force Survey ( ONS); EU data: Eurostat (European Commission) | Scotland data: Annual, using Jan-Mar data; EU data: Annual, using February data | Schools |
| KPI 3 Increase the percentage of school leavers attaining vocational qualifications [2] at SCQF level 5 and above by 2021 |
7% (2013/14) |
7% (2013/14) |
9% (2014/15) |
2013/14 School Leaver Statistics: data from Awarding Bodies ( SQA for baseline data) and SG Pupil Census [3] | Annual | Schools |
| KPI 4 [4] Increase the percentage of 16-24 year old college students who have successfully completed a full time course moving into employment or higher level study |
82.9% | Experimental Data [5] | 82.9% | College Leaver Destination Survey ( SFC) [6] | Annual, by college year | Colleges |
| KPI 5 The number of Modern Apprentices at level 3 and above to be increased. The target is for 20,000 out of a total of 30,000 MA starts to be at this level by 2021, i.e. two-thirds |
15,655 (2013/14) | 16,112 (2014/15) | 16,763 (2015/16) | Modern Apprenticeship Statistics: Full Year Report ( SDS) | Annual, by financial year (April-March) | Apprenticeships |
| KPI 6 Increase the percentage of employers recruiting young people directly from education to 35 per cent by 2018
|
32% (2014) | 32% (2014) | 32% (2014) | Employer Perspectives Survey ( UKCES) [7] | Biennial, based on 'last 2-3 years' when respondents are surveyed | Schools |
| KPI 7 To reduce to 60 per cent the percentage of Modern Apprenticeship frameworks [8] where the gender balance is 75:25 or worse by 2021 |
73% (2013/14) | 72% (2014/15) |
74% (2015/16) | Modern Apprenticeship Statistics: Full Year Report ( SDS) | Annual, by financial year (April- March) | Apprenticeships |
| KPI 8 Increase by 5 percentage points the minority gender share in each of the 10 largest and most imbalanced college superclasses [9] by 2021 |
5% average (2012/13) | 6% average (2013/14) |
7% Average (2014/15) | Further Education Statistics collection ( SFC) | Annual, by college year | Colleges |
| KPI 9 Increase the number of MA starts from minority ethnic communities to equal the population share by 2021 |
1.1% (2013/14) | 1.4% (2014/15) | 1.6% (2015/16) |
Modern Apprenticeship Statistics: Full Year Report ( SDS) | Annual, by financial (April-March) | Apprenticeships |
| KPI 10 Increase the employment rate for young disabled people to the population average by 2021
|
35.2% [10] (Jan-Dec 2014) | 35.2% (Jan-Dec 2014) |
40.8% (Jan-Dec 2015) |
Annual Population Survey ( ONS) [11] | Annual, by calendar year Schools | Apprenticeships |
| KPI 11 Increase positive destinations for looked after children by 4 percentage points per annum resulting in parity by 2021 [12] |
69.3% (2012/13) | 71.6% (2013/14) [13] | 13 69.3% (2014/15) | Educational Outcomes for Looked After Children ( SG) |
Annual, by school year Schools | Apprenticeships |
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