Just Transition for the Grangemouth industrial cluster: discussion paper

Outline Approach to Developing the Plan: Coordination and Scope

GFIB has approved proposals for work that will deliver a Just Transition Plan, informed by related Scottish Government policy, with a scope that focuses specifically on the industrial cluster at Grangemouth. The plan will outline a shared view of what the industrial cluster could look like by 2045, and the ways in which this transition can maximise socio-economic benefit for the surrounding area. In doing so the plan will focus on Just transition of the Falkirk/Grangemouth area as it relates to the decarbonisation of the industrial cluster. The plan will follow the process outlined in the Scottish Government’s National Just Transition Planning Framework.

Design stage activity has highlighted that it is difficult to define a clear scope for a Just Transition Plan that focuses on a specific region of industrial activity because the principles of just transition themselves focus on maximising or balancing socio-economic benefit for all whilst moving to net zero. By mapping the activity of the industrial cluster and its impact on the surrounding area – categorised by the eight National Just Transition Outcomes – GFIB is confident that it can appropriately identify areas where industrial decarbonisation crosses over with the activities of those surrounding communities.

GFIB recognises there are parallel initiatives, including the delivery of the Falkirk Growth Deal, the emerging Forth Valley Regional Economic Partnership and the Forth Green Freeport. The Board continues to liaise with partners to ensure that its work informs and dovetails with, but does not duplicate, efforts focusing on socio-economic development in Falkirk and the wider Forth Valley region. Ultimately, GFIB co-ordinates public sector activity for the industrial cluster and will ensure that efforts to deliver a Just Transition Plan do not complicate the landscape of development initiatives for the area.

2023-24 Just Transition Plan Work Programme

Phase 1 delivery is now the primary focus for 2023, with work already underway that will develop a baseline (mapping existing activity of the cluster and touchpoints with the surrounding community) as well as a co-created vision for the future Grangemouth Industrial Cluster by Autumn of this year. This will be a first-of-its-kind document that will take into consideration a wide range of views on what the future of the industrial cluster should look like – and it is GFIB’s hope that all the main industrial operators would endorse this vision.

The baseline will:

• Provide an updated assessment of the economic contribution of the Grangemouth industrial cluster;
• Isolate and present the current jobs/ skills makeup of the industrial cluster;
• Provide a detailed overview of industrial production;
• Quantify more granular emissions levels;
• Develop a wider outline of the relationship between the existing industrial cluster and the surrounding community, environment and business network, in line with the 8 Just Transition outcomes.

The vision will:

• Outline a well-presented articulation of the vision for the future industrial cluster at 2045;
• Provide an indicative summary of key elements, including scale of investment required, illustrative number and type of jobs required, for example.

Approach and Next Steps

It is GFIB’s intention that this is best achieved through a workshop-based approach, where a wide range of stakeholders are invited to targeted sessions that will be designed to maximise and capture meaningful input. It is the ambition of GFIB to sign a Just Transition Agreement or Memorandum of Understanding with industry following the publication of the Vision, committing all parties to work collaboratively towards this. The endorsement of this agreement could yield a powerful outcome demonstrating the shared commitment of government, local authority, wider public sector and industry to the region’s transition.

Following delivery of the vision, GFIB will commence Phase 2 Delivery that will focus attention on identifying the actions required to support the vision’s realisation – actions from the Scottish Government, UK Government, Regulators, industry and others which will be necessary for successful delivery.

Taken together, the baseline and vision products should allow for cross-comparison, acting as a spring-board for further analysis that can consider in detail the impacts, risks, opportunities and interdependencies for the industrial cluster (such as workforce, skills and infrastructure requirements, supply chain implications and anticipated impacts on communities and consumers). This will assist in identifying the primary points of action by GFIB partners and other stakeholders to support delivery of the full Just Transition plan.

This phase of work will also include a Theory of Change approach, which will involve a further series of extensive stakeholder workshops. It will help scrutinise the sufficiency of the Just Transition Plan. It centres around determining a set of outcomes or end goal – for example, the vision, and breaking this down into the steps needed to meet them.